The EV Eagle is back with four value bets from tonight's football.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterday's Results:
Bryan Cristante Over 1.5 Fouls - 1.5pt - LOST
Anton Kade - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 17/20 - VOID
Youri Tielemans Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt - 8/11 - WON
Jamil Siebert - Over 1.5 Fouls - 0.5pt - 59/50 - WON
Daouda Guindo - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - 21/20 - VOID
Running P/L: 8.3pts
Alejandro Jiménez – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt
23/20 with 10Bet at the time of publishing.
78% AI probability | 47% Odds implied | 69% Expected Value
Jiménez has landed a shot in six of his last eight starts, including appearances against Arsenal and Chelsea (twice), suggesting his output holds up even against elite opposition. At this price, the line looks significantly mispriced given his recent involvement.
Adrien Truffert – Over 2.5 Tackles - 1.5 pts
10/11 with SpreadEX at the time of publishing.
56% AI probability | 52% Odds implied | 8% Expected Value
Truffert averages 2.79 tackles per 90 and is Bournemouth’s most active tackler. His recent tackle counts read:
5, 3, 3, 2, 7, 3, 2, 3, 3, 1, 2, 3, 4, 3, clearing the 2.5 line in nine of his last 14 starts.
He faces Gómez, Brighton’s second-most dispossessed player, which should naturally inflate tackle opportunities.
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Antoine Bernede – Over 0.5 Shots - 1 pt
7/8 with Betway at the time of publishing.
66% AI probability | 53% Odds implied | 24% Expected Value
Bernede’s recent shot totals across his last nine games are: 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1.
Cremonese allow more shots than any other side in Serie A, creating a strong volume-based case for Bernede to register an attempt.
Kike Salas – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt
3/4 with SpreadEX at the time of publishing.
62% AI probability | 57% Odds implied | 9% Expected Value
Elche average the third-most possession in the league and attempt the eighth-most take-ons, while also ranking as the sixth-most tackled side - a strong recipe for defensive action.
Salas’ tackle numbers read:
2, 3, 2, 3, 1, 4, 2, 0, 2, 1, 2, 3, 0, 4, 4, hitting 2+ tackles in 11 of his last 15 starts.
