How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Adrien Truffert – Over 2.5 Tackles - 1.5 pts 10/11 WON
Antoine Bernede – Over 0.5 Shots - 1 pt 7/8 WON
Kike Salas – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt 3/4 LOST
Alejandro Jiménez – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt 23/20 WON

Running P/L: +10.7pts

Tottenham vs Dortmund

Julian Brandt – Over 1.5 Shots vs Tottenham - 1pt

8/5 with BetMGM at the time of publishing.

69% AI probability | 57% Odds implied | 21% Expected Value

Brandt is in outstanding form and this line looks generously priced against a Tottenham side under real pressure. He has five goals in his last five appearances and has registered 2+ shots in each of his last six starts.

Spurs are winless in five across all competitions, have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last three matches, and the mood around the club is increasingly sour with Thomas Frank reportedly under threat. All signs point to Dortmund generating chances, with Brandt central to that threat.

Real Madrid vs Monaco

Federico Valverde – Over 1.5 Shots vs Monaco - 1pt

10/13 with BetMGM at the time of publishing.

65% AI probability | 56% Odds implied | 16% Expected Value

Real Madrid should control this tie at home as they look to respond to their recent 2–1 defeat to Manchester City. Monaco arrive inconsistent, having failed to win consecutive matches since late October.

Operating at right-back, Valverde has recorded 2+ shots in 10 of his last 16 starts and in seven of his last nine home games. He also managed two shots against Manchester City in his last Champions League outing.

Home shot totals as RB: 0, 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 2, 8, 7.

Inter Milan vs Arsenal

Declan Rice – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Inter - 0.75 pts

11/10 with bet365 (Super Sub) at the time of publishing.

54% AI probability | 47% Odds implied | 14% Expected Value

Inter average the second-highest possession share in Serie A, which typically forces midfield opponents into defensive action. Tackles recorded by central midfielders against Inter this season read:
0, 2, 2, 1, 4, 3, 1, 1, 4, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0.

Rice has delivered 2+ tackles in 11 of his last 17 games and should be heavily involved in a competitive midfield battle against Barella, Zieliński and Šučić.

Olympiacos vs Monaco

Alex Grimaldo – Over 1.5 Shots vs Olympiacos - 1 pt

5/4 with Betway at the time of publishing.

60% AI probability | 52% Odds implied | 14% Expected Value

Grimaldo continues to be one of Leverkusen’s most aggressive wing-backs. He has registered 2+ shots in 10 of his last 15 starts and in five of his last seven Champions League appearances.

Given his advanced role and consistent shooting volume, this line still offers value at current prices.

Fabian Ruiz Over 1.5 Shots vs Sporting Lisbon - 1 pt

21/20 with BetMGM at the time publishing.

63% Ai probability, 48% Odds implied, 30% Expected value

PSG take the ninth most shots of any side in the big 5 European leagues. They face a sporting side that conceded 23 shots to Bayern and 18 shots to Juventus in two of their last three champions league games. PSG are certainly at that level of opponent and can do some damage here. Fabian Ruiz looks good value for 2 shots. 

He has 2+ shots in each of his last seven starts and in 13 of his last 18 games.