How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Mahdi Camara 1+ Shot - 1/1 - LOST - 1.5pt

Lillian Brassier 1+ Foul - 3/4 - WON - 1pt

Valentin Rongier 1+ Shot - 4/5 - LOST - 1.25pt

Valdemar Anton 1+ Shot - 4/5 - LOST - 0.75pt

Christopher Nkunku To Score Or Assist - 7/5 - LOST - 0.75pt

Matteo Tramoni Over 0.5 Fouls - 8/11 - LOST - 0.75pt

Ruben Garcia To Be Carded - 5/1 - WON - 0.5pt

Ante Budimir Anytime Goalscorer - 6/4 - LOST - 1pt

Ruben Garcia 2+ Fouls Committed - 6/4 - WON - 1pt

Running P/L: +19.1 pts

Derby vs Swansea

Josh Tymon – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

23/20 with Ladbrokes/Coral

51.98% AI Probability | 46.51% Odds Implied | 11.76% Expected Value

Tymon has been a key attacking outlet for Swansea this season, contributing 7 assists and consistently joining attacks. He’s regularly finding shooting positions: 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1, 3, 1, 1, 3 shota. With his freedom to roam forward, expect at least one shot here.

Preston vs Watford

Marc Bola – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

4/5 with Ladbrokes/Coral

63.02% AI Probability | 55.56% Odds Implied | 13.44% Expected Value

Bola is an attacking threat from the back, and Preston concede the 7th most shots in the league. He’s landed this bet in the last encounter and his recent shooting form backs it up: 1, 0, 2, 2, 1, 2, 3, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 1, 3, 0, 1.

5.0
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Dundee vs Livingston

Ethan Hamilton – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

3/4 with SpreadEX

76.18% AI Probability | 57.14% Odds Implied | 33.32% Expected Value

Hamilton is in excellent form, averaging 2.56 shots per game in his last ten appearances: 3, 2, 1, 6, 2, 3, 0, 2, 4, 1, 0, 1, 4, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3, 1.

Livingston allow 14% more shots than the league average, so he should get at least two attempts, as he did in the last head-to-head.

Seville vs Alaves

Lucien Agoumé – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

4/5 with BetMGM

63.8% AI Probability | 54.95% Odds Implied | 16.12% Expected Value

Agoumé is up against Alavés, who are among La Liga’s most combative sides (most duels in the league). Sevilla also engage heavily in duels (sixth most), so there should be plenty of fouls in midfield.

Agoume recent fouls: 3, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1, 2.

Hit in seven of last eight starts.

Hoffenheim vs Freiburg

Philipp Treu – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1.5pts

8/11 with Ladbrokes/Coral

70.23% AI Probability | 57.8% Odds Implied | 21.5% Expected Value

Treu is solid defensively and up against Hoffenheim’s third and fourth most fouled players down the right flank. He’s regularly committing fouls when tracking runners: 2, 0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2.