How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Josh Tymon – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - 23/20 WON
Marc Bola – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - 4/5  VOID
Ethan Hamilton – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 3/4  LOST
Lucien Agoumé – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - 4/5 WON
Philipp Treu – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1.5pts - 8/11 LOST

Running P/L: +18.55pts

Kilmarnock vs Celtic

Tyreece John-Jules – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

10/11 with William Hill (as short as 1/6 elsewhere)

74.79% AI Probability | 52.36% Odds Implied | 42.85% Expected Value

John-Jules has been in excellent shooting form for Kilmarnock, hitting 2+ shots in all but two of his appearances. Five of his last six games have seen him fire 3+ shots, and at home he’s gone: 6, 5, 4, 4. Even against a stingy Celtic side, he should manage at least two attempts.

Shots: 6, 1, 5, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2, 4, 2, 1

Bruce Anderson – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

8/11 with Ladbrokes/Coral

75.37% AI Probability | 57.8% Odds Implied | 30.39% Expected Value

Anderson will likely be busy in a frustrating encounter against Celtic, who dominate possession. He averages the most fouls for Kilmarnock, and his recent record backs it up: 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, 3, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, 4, 0, 2, 1, 1, 0.

4.5
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Le Havre vs Toulouse

Pape Diop – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

42/41 with Unibet

51.77% AI Probability | 49.51% Odds Implied | 4.58% Expected Value

Since joining Toulouse, Diop hasn’t shied away from firing at goal. In all five of his starts, he’s managed 2+ shots: 3, 2, 3, 2, 2. He should continue this streak against a side that concede a league average amount of shots.

Lyon vs Nice

Tom Louchet – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

17/20 with BetMGM

77.35% AI Probability | 53.76% Odds Implied | 43.87% Expected Value

When starting, he regularly shoots. He’s had a go in 6 of his last 7 starts and has registered 2+ shots in 4 of his last 10: 1, 4, 3, 0, 3, 1, 1, 0, 2, 0. Lyon are strong, but they’ve conceded plenty of shots recently (13, 8, 11, 5, 15).

Napoli vs Roma

Bryan Cristante – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

4/5 with Ladbrokes/Coral

57.28% AI Probability | 55.56% Odds Implied | 3.1% Expected Value

Third face fifth in Serie A in this game. Cristante is up against Napoli’s most fouled players in McTominay (1.86 per game) and Lobotka (1.53 per game). His recent fouls record: 3, 4, 2, 2, 0, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1, 3, 0, 2, 2, 0, 2, makes this a solid pick in a combative midfield battle.