How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Tyreece John-Jules – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt -10/11 - WON
Bruce Anderson – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - 8/11 - VOID 
Pape Diop – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 42/41 - WON
Tom Louchet – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - 17/20 - WON
Bryan Cristante – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - 4/5 - LOST

Running P/L: +20.35pts

Coventry vs Middlesbrough

Hayden Hackney – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

13/10 with Betway

60.89% AI Probability | 46.3% Odds Implied | 31.52% Expected Value

It is hard to ignore these odds. Hackney was sensational against Sheffield, hitting 3 shots on target from 5 attempts. Middlesbrough are arguably the best side in the league at the moment and had 8 shots on target in the first half last game, so backing Hackney to land at least one is sensible.

Shots on Target: 3, 2, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0

Tommy Conway – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

4/5 with BetMGM

67.67% AI Probability | 55.56% Odds Implied | 21.81% Expected Value

Conway is in fine form, scoring 4 goals over his last 4 games and hitting the target in his last six matches. He’s one of Boro’s main attacking threats.

Shots on Target: 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 2, 1

5.0
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Girona vs Barcelona

Hugo Rincon – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

6/5 with Coral, Ladbrokes, BetMGM

52.46% AI Probability | 49.51% Odds Implied | 5.97% Expected Value

Rincon averages 1.84 fouls per 90 and is up against the league's highest average possession team. He should see multiple fouls committed. He has landed this bet in his last 8 starts.

Fouls Committed: 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, 3

Cagliari vs Lecce

Lassana Coulibaly – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

1/1 with William Hill

56.28% AI Probability | 50% Odds Implied | 12.56% Expected Value

Coulibaly has been consistently shooting, with 2 shots in his last 3 games and at least one in 6 of his last 8. Cagliari concede 7% more shots than the league average.