How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Hayden Hackney – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt -13/10  WON
Tommy Conway – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt - 4/5  LOST
Hugo Rincon – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - 6/5  LOST
Lassana Coulibaly – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - 1/1  LOST

Running P/L: +18.65pts

Dortmund vs Atalanta

Nikola Krstović – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

4/5 with BetMGM

71.64% AI Probability | 55.56% Odds Implied | 28.95% Expected Value

Krstović has hit the target in each of his last four Champions League appearances and averages 2.3 shots on target per 90 across his last 20 matches in all competitions. He’s landed at least one on target in 15 of his last 20 starts.

Dortmund have conceded 12, 16, 7, 10, 18 shots in their last five UCL games - the volume will be there.

Benfica vs Real Madrid

Álvaro Carreras – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

5/6 with Bet Victor

67.67% AI Probability | 54.65% Odds Implied | 23.84% Expected Value

Carreras averages 2.02 tackles per 90 over his last 20 appearances, rising to 3.06 per 90 in the Champions League this season. His UCL tackle numbers: 2, 4, 0, 6, 4, 2.

He cleared this line in the previous meeting between these sides and faces Prestiani again, who averages 1.9 dribbles per game and was heavily involved last time out - 3 shots, 2 dribbles, 2 fouls won. A strong matchup for defensive action.

Monaco vs PSG

Folarin Balogun – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

17/20 with BetMGM

65.71% AI Probability | 53.48% Odds Implied | 22.88% Expected Value

Balogun remains Monaco’s most reliable attacking threat. He’s hit the target in 17 of his last 20 matches and in each of his last six Champions League games.

Even against elite opposition, he gets chances - registering 4 shots (1 on target) vs Real Madrid and 2 shots (1 on target) vs Juventus in his last two. At home, he should find at least one effort on target again.

Achraf Hakimi – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

1/1 with BetMGM

70.35% AI Probability | 50% Odds Implied | 40.7% Expected Value

Hakimi’s shot volume is outstanding for a full-back. All competitions: 0, 4, 2, 0, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 2.

Champions League numbers: 2, 0, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 3, 2, 3, 2 - only missing this line against Bayern and Arsenal.

Monaco have conceded 5, 25, 13, 17, 17, 11, 18 shots in the UCL. The volume should be there again.

Benfica vs Real Madrid

Vinícius Júnior – Over 2.5 Shots - 1 pt

49/50 with BetMGM

55.55% AI Probability | 50.51% Odds Implied | 9.99% Expected Value

Vinícius thrives on the big stage. In his last 20 Champions League appearances, he’s failed to clear this line just four times. Recent shot counts: 3, 5, 4, 6, 0, 4, 2, 6, 3.

With Madrid’s attacking intensity in Europe, expect him to fire regularly once again.

Shots & Shots on Target Acca - 0.5pt

A four-fold focused on high-volume attackers in big European ties.

Achraf Hakimi – Over 1.5 Shots @ 1/1

Nikola Krstovic – Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 4/5

Folarin Balogun – Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 17/20

Vinicius Junior – Over 2.5 Shots @ 49/50

Best price 12.33/1 with BetMGM - 0.5 pts.