How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Man City vs Newcastle

Sandro Tonali – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

10/13 with BetMGM

73.05% AI Probability | 56.18% Odds Implied | 30.03% Expected Value

Tonali has been consistently pulling the trigger: 1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, 3, 0, 1, 3, 1, 2.

He’s landed this line in each of his games against Man City this season and continues to arrive in advanced areas. One effort looks very likely.

Anthony Gordon – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

21/20 with 10Bet

53.03% AI Probability | 48.78% Odds Implied | 8.71% Expected Value

Gordon is brimming with confidence after a 6-shot, 4-goal performance last time out.

When deployed as a striker, his shot totals read: 6, 4, 3, 3, 1, 3, 7, 2 across his last eight starts in that role.

Newcastle are pushing for Europe, expect him to stay aggressive in front of goal.

West Ham vs Bournemouth

Álex Jiménez – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

17/20 with 10Bet.

78.32% AI Probability | 54.05% Odds Implied | 44.89% Expected Value

West Ham have conceded the second most shots in the league, and Jiménez is regularly getting attempts away.

Recent shots: 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1.

Mateus Fernandes – Over 2.5 Tackles - 1 pt

23/20 with William Hill

51.82% AI Probability | 46.51% Odds Implied | 11.41% Expected Value

Fernandes averages around 3 tackles per 90 and faces Bournemouth’s most dispossessed player, Christie.

Recent tackle numbers: 5, 3, 1, 5, 4, 3, 1, 5, 4, 1, 1, 8, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2.

Plenty of defensive involvement expected here.

Toulouse vs Paris FC

Pape Diop – Over 1.5 Shots -1 pt

42/41 with Unibet.

61.81% AI Probability | 49.51% Odds Implied | 24.86% Expected Value

Diop continues to deliver since joining Toulouse. Across his six starts, he’s recorded 5, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2 shots — clearing this line every time.

After landing five attempts in his last outing, he remains a strong volume play.