How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Morgan Gibbs-White - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 10/11 - WON
Ibrahim Sangare - 2+ Fouls Committed - 1.5pts - 23/20 - LOST
Matias Fernandez - 1+ Shot on Target - 1.25pts -10/11 - LOST
Double 1 - 1pt Stake - LOST
Double 2 - 0.25pt Stake - LOST

Running P/L: +20.35pts

Blackburn vs Preston Bet Builder - 0.5 pts

Best price 11/2 with bet365 (super sub) at the time of publishing.

Leg 1: Jordan Storey – Over 0.5 Fouls

68.4% AI Probability | 54.56% Odds Implied | 25.38% Expected Value

Leg 2: Alfie Devine Over 0.5 Shots On Target

54.92% Ai Probability |  51.28% Odds Implied |  7.09% Expected Value

Leg 3: Jordan Storey Over 0.5 Shots

50.14% Ai probability | 48.78% odds implied | 2.79% expected value

Blackburn vs Preston

Jordan Storey – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt

5/6 with Bet365 (super sub)

68.4% AI Probability | 54.56% Odds Implied | 25.38% Expected Value

Storey has been active defensively, committing 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1 fouls recently. In the last eight games, he’s also picked up a red and two yellows.

Facing Todd Cantwell, who draws 2.23 fouls per 90, Storey should find at least one foul opportunity.

Alfie Devine – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

33/20 with BetMGM

54.92% AI Probability | 51.28% Odds Implied | 7.09% Expected Value

Devine has been creating opportunities consistently. He leads his squad with 61 shots this season, 16 on target, showing he’s willing to shoot when given the chance.

Recent Shots on Target: 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1

Even in tighter matches, he looks likely to get at least one shot on target.

Mainz vs Hamburg

Miro Muheim – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

17/20 with SpreadEX

61.56% AI Probability | 54.05% Odds Implied | 13.89% Expected Value

Hamburg’s left wing-back is shooting regularly, with at least one shot in 14 of his last 17 games.

Muheim Shots: 1, 0, 1, 0, 3, 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2

Mainz concede 14% more shots than the league average, giving him a good chance to let one fly.

Brest vs Marseille

Remy Labeau Lascary – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

41/50 with BetMGM

60.98% AI Probability | 54.65% Odds Implied | 11.59% Expected Value

Lascary is in good form, scoring in each of his last two games. His shot counts: 3, 3, 2, 2, 0, 2, 1, 2.

He’s hit this line in each of his last four home games, so expect him to be active in attack once again.