How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Everton vs Man United Bet Builder - 0.5 pts - LOST
Diego Dalot 1+ Shot - 1pt - 19/20 - WON
Vitaliy Mykolenko 2+ Tackles - 1pt - 4/5 - VOID
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 2+ Shots - 1pt - 11/8 - LOST
Bryan Mbeumo Anytime Goalscorer - 0.5pts - 15/8  - LOST

Bayer Leverkusen vs Olympiakos

Álex Grimaldo – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

6/5 with BetMGM

77.52% AI Probability | 46.51% Odds Implied | 66.67% Expected Value

Atlético’s most consistent shooter, averaging 2.16 shots per 90. He only managed one in the reverse fixture, but at home his numbers are strong - 2+ shots in 8 of his last 12.

Recent totals: 1, 2, 4, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 2, 0, 6, 1, 2, 7.

With that volume and this price, the value angle is obvious.

Chiquinho – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

27/25 with BetMGM.

70.09% AI Probability | 48.08% Odds Implied | 45.79% Expected Value

The market hasn’t fully respected his shooting volume. His last four UCL games read: 1, 4, 3, 5 (including 3 vs Real Madrid).

League form supports it too: 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 6, 4.

He managed one in the reverse fixture, but needing to be proactive as they chase a 2 goal deficit, the volume should increase.

5.0
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Atletico Madrid vs Club Brugge

Christos Tzolis – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

4/5 with BetMGM

62.73% AI Probability | 55.56% Odds Implied | 12.91% Expected Value

Tzolis was electric in the reverse fixture - 5 shots, 3 on target. He averages 1.31 shots on target per 90 and has hit the target in 9 of his last 11 UCL games, landing 2+ in seven of those - including against Arsenal, Barcelona and Bayern.

With everything on the line, he’s central to Brugge’s attacking threat again.

Giuliano Simeone – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

10/11 with BetMGM

73.44% AI Probability | 52.08% Odds Implied | 41% Expected Value

Simeone’s shot volume spikes in Europe. He’s cleared this line in 5 of his last 7 UCL matches, including 3 in the reverse fixture against Brugge.

Back at home and chasing progression from the play offs, expect the winger to be direct and aggressive.

Ademola Lookman – Over 0.5 Fouls -1pt

10/13 with BetMGM

69.26% AI Probability | 56.18% Odds Implied | 23.28% Expected Value

Lookman has committed a foul in 4 of his 5 starts since joining Atlético. The only miss came in the reverse leg when he was substituted early.

Brugge had 57% possession last time - rare against this Atlético side who have only had less possession twice in their last 14 (the only other time against Barcelona) - and if they retain spells of control again, Lookman will be forced into defensive work. A single foul looks very achievable.