How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Álex Grimaldo – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 6/5 - WON
Chiquinho – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 27/25 - LOST
Christos Tzolis – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt - 4/5 - WON
Giuliano Simeone – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 10/11 - WON
Ademola Lookman – Over 0.5 Fouls -1pt - 10/13 - VOID

Monaco vs PSG

Achraf Hakimi – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

10/13 with BetMGM | 78.98% AI Probability | 56.18% Odds Implied | 40.58% Expected Value

Hakimi’s shot volume is elite for a full-back and this line continues to underrate just how advanced his role is. Across all competitions his last five read 3, 2, 0, 4, 2, while his Champions League numbers are even stronger: 2, 2, 0, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 3, 2, 3, 2 — only failing against Bayern and Arsenal.

Monaco have been wide open in Europe, conceding 30, 25, 17, 18 shots in several games, including 30 in the reverse fixture, where Hakimi still managed two. With PSG expected to dominate territory again, the volume should be there.

Lamine Camara – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

19/20 with Coral | 60.75% AI Probability | 51.28% Odds Implied | 18.46% Expected Value

Camara averages 1.77 fouls per 90, the highest in Monaco’s side, and once again faces the unenviable task of trying to contain PSG’s midfield. He’s committed 2+ fouls in 7 of his last 10, including the reverse fixture, and has landed this line in four of his last five Champions League appearances.

With PSG expected to control possession, this sets up for another busy, defensive evening.

Wout Faes – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1.5pts

8/11 with bet365 | 64.62% AI Probability | 57.9% Odds Implied | 11.6% Expected Value

Faes is never shy of a challenge. He’s been booked in both of his last two games, including the reverse fixture where he committed 2+ fouls. Crucially, he has recorded at least one foul in every game he has started for Monaco.

With sustained defensive pressure expected again, this looks a very steady angle.

5.0
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Atalanta vs Dortmund

Jobe Bellingham – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

8/11 with BetMGM | 77.21% AI Probability | 57.8% Odds Implied | 33.57% Expected Value

Despite Dortmund holding a 2–0 lead, there’s no reason to expect Jobe Bellingham to go quiet. He’s had at least one shot in all but one of his last seven games, and in five of his six Champions League appearances this season.

Atalanta will be forced to chase the game, leaving space on the counter - exactly the kind of setup that allows Bellingham to pick up shooting positions.