How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Achraf Hakimi – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 10/13 - WON
Lamine Camara – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - 19/20 - LOST
Wout Faes – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1.5pts - 8/11 - WON
Jobe Bellingham – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - 8/11 - LOST

Red Star vs Lille

Matias Fernandez – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

17/20 with BetMGM | 72.94% AI Probability | 53.76% Odds Implied | 35.67% Expected Value

Fernandez continues to post strong shooting numbers for his role. His recent returns read: 3, 0, 5, 3, 2, 1, 2, 1, 3, 0, clearing this line comfortably in most of those.

He’s hit 2+ shots in 12 of his last 20, and when he gets into rhythm he isn’t shy about pulling the trigger. At this price, the edge is clear.

Stuttgart vs Celtic

Jamie Leweling – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

22/25 with BetMGM | 69.35% AI Probability | 53.19% Odds Implied | 30.38% Expected Value

Leweling has registered a shot on target in 13 of his last 20, showing strong consistency in getting efforts on frame. He’s also scored in two of his last five, including against Celtic.

Given his direct style and willingness to test the keeper, one effort on target looks very achievable.

Jamie Leweling – Over 0.5 Fouls -1 pt

8/11 with Ladbrokes | 62.73% AI Probability | 57.8% Odds Implied | 8.52% Expected Value

Leweling’s Europa League foul record reads: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 0, 3, 0. In all competitions: 1, 2, 0, 2, 2, 1.

He presses aggressively and tracks back, which naturally leads to contact. One foul is a low bar for a high-energy winger.

5.0
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Genk vs Dinamo Zagreb

Konstantinos Karetsas – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

1/1 with bet365 | 54.91% AI Probability | 50% Odds Implied | 9.82% Expected Value

Karetsas’ Europa League shots on target read: 1, 2, 0, 0, 2, 1, 0, 1.

He’s capable of finding space between the lines and isn’t afraid to test the keeper from range. At even money, this is a fair value play.

Junya Ito – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

9/10 with BetMGM | 76.52% AI Probability | 52.63% Odds Implied | 45.39% Expected Value

Ito’s Europa League returns: 2, 4, 0, 1. Across all competitions: 2, 2, 1, 0, 1, 4, 2, 0, 1, 3, 3, 2.