Wolves vs Aston Villa

How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Matias Fernandez – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 17/20 WON
Jamie Leweling – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt - 22/25 - WON
Jamie Leweling – Over 0.5 Fouls -1 pt - 8/11 LOST
Konstantinos Karetsas – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt 1/1 WON
Junya Ito – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 9/10 - LOST

Running P/L: +21.4pts

Morgan Rogers – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt

55.01% AI probability | 53.19% implied | 3.42% EV | 7/8 (Unibet)

Rogers remains Villa’s most active shooter, averaging 2.7 attempts per 90, and faces a Wolves side that ranks among the lowest for possession while conceding one of the highest shot volumes in the league. With Villa needing momentum in the Champions League race, attacking responsibility should again fall heavily on Rogers, making at least one effort on target look very achievable.

João Gomes – Over 2.5 Tackles - 1pt

77.93% AI probability | 47.62% implied | 63.65% EV | 11/10 (BetVictor)

Villa’s possession-heavy style consistently invites tackles from opposition midfielders, allowing the third-most tackles against them in the Premier League. Gomes averages 3.3 tackles per 90 and has cleared this line regularly, making this a strong volume-based angle in what should be a busy midfield battle.

Matty Cash – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

79.56% AI probability | 55.56% implied | 43.21% EV | 3/4 (SpreadEX)

With Wolves conceding plenty of attempts and Villa expected to control possession, Cash’s overlapping runs down the right provide a reliable shot route. His recent numbers show consistent involvement in advanced areas, and one effort looks well within reach.

Matty Cash Shots: 1, 2, 4, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 

5.0
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Parma vs Cagliari

Marco Palestra – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

68% AI probability | 56.18% implied | 21.04% EV | 10/13 (BetMGM)

Palma allow the third most shots in the league. His recent record shows steady shooting involvement, and against a permissive defence he should find opportunities again.

Marco Palestra Shots: 1, 1, 0, 1, 3, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, 2, 1,

Bristol vs Watford

Edo Kayembe – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

62.46% AI probability | 52.36% implied | 19.3% EV | 10/11 (William Hill)

Kayembe’s attacking output has been consistently strong, highlighted by seven shots last time out against Derby, and he’s now cleared this line in five straight games. With Bristol conceding around league-average shot numbers, his current volume alone makes this line appealing.