How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Tommy Conway – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt - 17/20 - LOST
Tomoki Iwata – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - 6/4 - WON
Eduardo Camavinga – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - VOID
Arda Güler – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 3/4 - WON

Running P/L: +21.44pts

Wolves vs Liverpool

Mateus Mané – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Mané has emerged as one of Wolves’ main attacking outlets, first catching the eye in the reverse fixture against Liverpool where he fired off four shots and consistently troubled the defence. Since then, he’s recorded 2+ shots in eight of his 12 starts, hitting 3+ in six of those. With Wolves playing freely and committing numbers forward, his shot volume remains reliable.

58.69% AI probability | 55.56% implied | 5.64% EV | 4/5 (bet365)

Mohamed Salah – Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt

Salah continues to dominate Liverpool’s shooting output and remains heavily involved despite a dip in goal contributions compared to last season. Wolves concede 13.29 shots per game and rank among the league’s top sides for attempts allowed. Salah has cleared this line in six of his last eight matches.

Mohamed Salah Shots: 3, 0, 5, 4, 5, 2, 4, 3, 2, 3

67.59% AI probability | 48.78% implied | 38.56% EV | 21/20 with 10Bet

Virgil van Dijk – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

Always a major aerial threat, Van Dijk benefits from Liverpool’s strong corner volume against a side that regularly concedes corners (fourth most). He’s registered a shot in six of his last eight matches and scored three times across that span.

70.12% AI probability | 54.05% implied | 29.72% EV | 17/20 (10Bet)

5.0
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Leeds vs Sunderland

Enzo Le Fée – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

Le Fée’s midfield role regularly puts him into defensive actions, and his recent tackle numbers show that. He’s cleared this line in four of his last six outings.

Enzo Le Fée Tackles: 3, 1, 2, 3, 1, 5, 1, 2, 1, 1, 5, 4, 

Against a Leeds side that need points this could become a battle for the ball in the middle of the park.

64.81% AI probability | 54.05% implied | 19.9% EV | 17/20 (William Hill)

Everton vs Burnley

Jaidon Anthony – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Burnley’s need for wins has led to a slight increase in attacking intent, producing 12 and 16 shots in their last two matches. Anthony has become a key attacking outlet, scoring twice in his last three games and regularly finding shooting positions. Against an Everton side allowing the fifth-most shots this season, the opportunity should again be there.

Jaidon Anthony Shots: 5, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2,.

51.3% AI probability | 45.87% implied | 11.83% EV | 59/50

Shots Accumulator Tip - 0.5 pts

  • Mohamed Salah Over 1.5 Shots
  • Mateus Mane Over 1.5 Shots
  • Virgil van Dijk Over 0.5 Shots
  • Jaidon Anthony Over 1.5 Shots

6.1/1 with Bet365 (Super sub) at the time of publishing.

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