How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Cabrera Unai Lopez - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - 22/25 - VOID
Largie Ramazani - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1.0pt - 1/1 WON
Federico Dimarco - Over 1.5 Shots - 1.5pt - 10/11 - WON
Christian Pulisic - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt - 4/5 - LOST
Tanner Tessmann - Over 0.5 Shots - 0.5pt - 8/11 - WON

Running P/L: +19pts

Galatasaray vs Liverpool

Rio Ngumoha – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Liverpool supporters have been calling for Ngumoha to start on the left after his electric performance against Wolves. The youngster managed four shots in just 69 minutes in that game and looked Liverpool’s most dangerous outlet. If he gets the nod again, his direct style and willingness to shoot make two attempts against Galatasaray well within reach.

75.31% AI probability | 46.3% implied | 62.67% EV | 23/20 BetMGM

Dominik Szoboszlai – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt

Szoboszlai is expected to move back into a central attacking midfield role with Jeremie Frimpong returning to the side. In that position he regularly threatens goal, registering 12 shots on target across his last eight starts at CAM and seven across his last two Champions League appearances there. Set-piece duties also increase his chances.

52.87% AI probability | 47.62% implied | 10.53% EV | 11/10 (SpreadEX)

Dominic Solanke – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Solanke leads the line against Atlético and tends to generate consistent shooting volume when starting. He’s produced 2+ shots in five of his last seven starts, including three against Dortmund in the Champions League.

52.86% AI probability | 46.51% implied | 7.75% EV | 11/10 (SpreadEX)

Newcastle vs Barcelona

FC Barcelona – To Win vs Newcastle

Newcastle United have enjoyed an impressive run to reach the Round of 16 and arrive unbeaten in their last five Champions League matches. However, their games have been wide open recently, with both teams scoring in their last 12 matches across all competitions.

Barcelona bring significantly more experience at this stage, progressing from 15 of their last 16 Champions League Round-of-16 ties and winning their last five knockout clashes against English clubs. With attacking quality led by Lamine Yamal and Robert Lewandowski, their firepower could prove decisive again.

6/4 with AKBets | 43% AI probability | 40% implied | 7.5% EV

Lamine Yamal – Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt

Newcastle United have been leaking goals recently (3, 1, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4 across recent matches). Few players are better placed to exploit that than Yamal, who has scored seven goals in his last 11 matches and seven in his last 13 Champions League games.

36.75% AI probability | 34.48% implied | 6.58% EV | 2/1 (Betway)