How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Friday's Results:

Wrexham vs Swansea Bet Builder - 1pt LOST

Brentford vs Wolves

João Gomes – Over 3.5 Tackles - 1pt

Gomes continues to post excellent defensive numbers, clearing this line in seven of his last nine matches. Brentford are the seventh most tackled side in the league and Gomes should see plenty of action against midfielders like Jensen and Damsgaard, who are both regularly dispossessed (3rd and fifth in Brentford side). The matchup points towards another busy night for Wolves’ combative midfielder.

57.2% AI probability | 48.78% implied | 17.26% EV | 13/8 (bet365)

Mateus Mané – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

Mané has been heavily involved in the physical side of games recently, committing 2+ fouls in five of his last seven appearances. If deployed on the left he could find himself up against Brentford’s most fouled player this season, Michael Kayode, setting up a matchup that could naturally produce fouls.

53.31% AI probability | 47.62% implied | 11.95% EV | 13/8 (Sporting Index / SpreadEX / PricedUP)

Michael Kayode – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1.5 pts

Kayode faces an intriguing duel with Wolves winger Mateus Mané, who averages 4.6 dribbles per 90 and is the most dispossessed player in the Wolves side. That combination often leads to repeated defensive actions, and Kayode’s recent tackle numbers (2, 2, 4, 0, 2, 1, 3) suggest this line is well within reach.

68.99% AI probability | 57.8% implied | 19.35% EV | 8/11 (Sporting Index / SpreadEX)

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Portsmouth vs Derby

Derby County – To Win vs Portsmouth FC - 1pt

Derby look the more convincing side heading into this clash. They have been one of the Championship’s stronger away performers this season and continue to create chances even during a recent dip in road results.

Portsmouth, meanwhile, appear short on confidence after three straight home defeats at Fratton Park, scoring just once in that run. With Derby still pushing for the playoffs and Pompey struggling to manage key moments in games, the Rams look capable of taking advantage and securing an important three points.

31% AI probability | 27.78% implied | 11.6% EV | 13/5 (Bresbet)