How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

João Gomes – Over 3.5 Tackles - 1pt - LOST
Mateus Mané – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - LOST
Michael Kayode – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1.5 pts - LOST
Derby County – To Win vs Portsmouth FC - 1pt - WON @ 13/5

Sporting Lisbon vs Bodo/Glimt

Jens Petter Hauge – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1 Point

Hauge is in excellent form with four goals in his last six matches, registering five shots on target across that period. With Sporting expected to chase the game, spaces should open up on the break — a scenario that suits Hauge’s direct style and increases his chances of testing the keeper.

66.8% AI probability | 46.08% implied | 44.96% EV | 5/4 (BetMGM)

Chelsea vs PSG

João Pedro – Over 2.5 Shots - 1 Point

Chelsea face a three-goal deficit and will need to attack aggressively from the outset. Pedro’s recent shot numbers (4, 3, 5, 4, 3, 7…) show he’s already clearing this line consistently, and with increased attacking intent at home, the volume angle remains strong.

52.45% AI probability | 50% implied | 4.9% EV | 1/1 (Betway)

Moisés Caicedo – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1 Point

Caicedo is Chelsea’s most consistent fouler, averaging 1.6 per 90, and has gone over this line in five of his last eight Champions League matches. Against a technically strong midfield featuring Vitinha, Warren Zaïre-Emery and João Neves, he should be kept busy defensively.

58.76% AI probability | 48.78% implied | 20.46% EV | 5/4 (StarSports)

5.0
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Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen

Patrik Schick – Over 1.5 Shots - 1 Point

Schick’s consistency in front of goal has been exceptional, clearing this line in 11 consecutive starts. With the tie still finely balanced and both sides needing to push forward, his shot volume should remain high once again.

60.35% AI probability | 51.28% implied | 17.68% EV | 19/20 (10Bet)

Man City vs Real Madrid

Aurélien Tchouaméni – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1 Point

Tchouaméni offers strong value here given his role in midfield and recent output, recording 2+ fouls in three of his last four Champions League games. With Manchester City expected to dominate possession and players like Rodri drawing fouls regularly (second most in City side) in the midfield, the conditions point towards another busy defensive performance.

46.66% AI probability | 32.25% implied | 44.70% EV | 21/10 (Ladbrokes)