The EV Eagle is 5.7pts in profit over the past two days. Check out Friday's tips here.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterday's Results:
Morgan Gibbs-White - Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt - VOID
Elliot Anderson - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - VOID
Endrick - To Score/Assist - 1pt - 5/4 - LOST
Morgan Rogers - Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt - 2/1 - LOST
Donyell Malen - Over 1.5 Shots on Target - 1pt - 6/4 - WON
Abde Ezzalzouli - To Score/Assist - 1pt - 23/20 - WON
2025/26 Season P+L: +24pts
Tip 1: Keinan Davis - Anytime Goalscorer vs Genoa - 1pt
Best odds: 3/1 (multiple bookmakers)
Worst odds: 9/4
Davis is Udinese’s main finisher this season, with 9 Serie A goals in 25 appearances and strong per-90 scoring output, so an anytime angle isn’t a reach.
The game environment isn’t expected to be a shootout, which is fine at 3/1—one high-quality chance (or set-piece/box scramble) can cash it.
AI probability: 31.9% | Implied probability: 24.4% | Expected Value: 30.9%
Tip 2: Matheus Cunha - Anytime Goalscorer vs Bournemouth - 1pt
Best odds: 5/2 (BetVictor)
Worst odds: 8/5
Cunha has 7 Premier League goals this season and his underlying expected-goals profile remains strong for an anytime scorer at this type of price.
He’s also heavily involved in United’s shooting—70 league shots (with 28 on target), and that volume is exactly what you want when backing an anytime scorer away from home.
This fixture has “chances at both ends” potential based on the way both sides play and the recent head-to-head context, which increases the number of scoring paths (open play, transition, second phases).
AI probability: 33.3% | Implied probability: 28.6% | Expected Value: 16.6%
Midnite
Tip 3: Mikel Oyarzabal - Anytime Goalscorer vs Villarreal - 1pt
Best odds: 23/10 (PricedUp / Star Sports)
Worst odds: 8/5
Oyarzabal’s baseline output is top-tier: 12 La Liga goals in 25 matches this season, with elite per-90 scoring numbers for a forward in a top-seven side.
The matchup also suits him—Villarreal games are rarely passive at the Cerámica and Sociedad can hurt teams in transition, so Oyarzabal should still see chances even if Sociedad have less of the ball.
Oyarzabal also has a historically strong scoring record vs Villarreal, which adds a nice layer of opponent-specific confidence to an anytime ticket.
AI probability: 34.7% | Implied probability: 30.3% | Expected Value: 14.6%
Tip 4: Yan Diomandé — Anytime Goalscorer vs Hoffenheim — 1pt
Best odds: 21/10 (BetVictor / betway)
Worst odds: 6/4
Diomandé is a genuine end-product winger: 10 Bundesliga goals and 5 assists this season, and he’s been a consistent starter/impact player across the campaign.
The match context helps too—this is a high-stakes top-four race clash, which typically pushes tempo and attacking intent rather than a low-event stalemate.
If Leipzig create anything like their usual home shot volume, Diomandé is one of the likeliest recipients of the high-value chances (arriving at the back post, cut-backs, broken-phase shots).
AI probability: 42.6% | Implied probability: 32.3% | Expected Value: 32.1%
Tip 5: Matthieu Udol — Over 1.5 Shots vs Angers — 1pt
Best odds: 5/4 (Unibet)
This is a clean volume play: Udol has posted 18 shots across his last 10 Ligue 1 matches (1.8 per game), which is right on the line for clearing 2+.
His role supports it as well—Udol’s profile shows advanced involvement and regular shooting contribution for a wide defender/wing-back type, so he doesn’t need a freak game state to get attempts away.
And the opponent helps: Angers are one of the lower shot-volume sides in Ligue 1, while Lens games often feature plenty of total attempts, meaning Lens should spend long spells in the final third (where Udol can rack up shots from wide/second phases).
AI probability: 52.1% | Implied probability: 47.2% | Expected Value: 10.4%
