EV Eagle's Premier League Betting Tips on Saturday

How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Keinan Davis - Anytime Goalscorer vs Genoa - 1pt - 3/1 WON
Matheus Cunha - Anytime Goalscorer vs Bournemouth - 1pt 5/2 LOST
Mikel Oyarzabal - Anytime Goalscorer vs Villarreal - 1pt - 23/10 LOST
Yan Diomandé — Anytime Goalscorer vs Hoffenheim — 1pt 21/10 LOST
Matthieu Udol — Over 1.5 Shots vs Angers — 1pt 5/4 WON

Running P/L: +25.25 pts

Jake O'Brien Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

11/10 with bet365

61.38% AI probability | 47.62% odds implied | 28.9% expected value

Jake O'Brien looks well placed to clear this tackles line in what should be a busy game defensively. His recent numbers are strong enough — 0, 3, 6, 2, 3, 1, 4, 1, 3 — and the matchup only strengthens the case. He is likely to come up against Pedro Neto, one of the most aggressive dribblers in the Chelsea side behind just Estevão, which should give O'Brien plenty of chances to get stuck in.

Moisés Caicedo Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

21/20 with Ladbrokes

58.08% AI probability | 48.78% odds implied | 19.06% expected value

Caicedo is always worth a look in the fouls market and these odds make plenty of appeal. His recent foul numbers read 3, 1, 1, 0, 4, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 2, 3, 2, 2, and this setup gives him every chance of adding to that. Up against a midfield featuring Dewsbury-Hall, who draws the most fouls in the Everton side, and Gueye, who ranks second among the regular starters, there should be enough pressure in central areas for Caicedo to go over.

Brentford Win vs Leeds - 1pt

19/10 with AKBets

35% AI probability | 34.48% odds implied | 1.5% expected value

This is not a huge edge, but Brentford still look the right side. They sit seventh in the table and remain on course for a Conference League place, while Leeds are down in 15th and hovering just three points above the bottom three. Brentford’s away form has been especially impressive too, with five wins from their last seven on the road and just one away defeat in 2026, which came at Chelsea.

The matchup trends also support the visitors. Brentford have lost only one of their last 13 Premier League games against promoted sides, winning 11 of them, while Leeds come into this one on a rotten run — five without a win, three without a goal, and no goals scored in each of their last three matches. Add in Brentford’s greater attacking threat, led by Igor Thiago, and the away win makes sense.

Harry Wilson Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt

15/8 with SpreadEX

38.5% AI probability | 34.72% odds implied | 10.88% expected value

Wilson stands out as a lively anytime goalscorer angle here. Burnley are still clinging on mathematically, but the writing looks to be on the wall and their defensive record tells the story — they have conceded the most goals in the league (58). That should offer Wilson the platform to get involved in the final third and add to his tally of nine goals this season. Against one of the division’s weakest defences, he looks a fair price to make the difference.