EV Eagle's Five Football Betting Tips on Sunday

How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Jake O'Brien Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt - 11/10 - LOST
Moisés Caicedo Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - 21/20 - LOST
Brentford Win vs Leeds - 1pt - 19/10 - LOST
Harry Wilson Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt - 15/8 - WON

Running P/L: +24.13pts

Tomas Soucek Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

11/10 with Ladbrokes

55.35% AI probability | 47.62% odds implied | 16.24% expected value

This West Ham vs Aston Villa clash has all the intensity of a relegation scrap meets European push. Soucek looks a solid pick to land over 1.5 fouls. He’s done it in four of his last six starts, and he’ll be up against Villa players who invite fouls - Rogers, the most fouled in the side, and Onana, the fourth most. Expect a physical midfield battle with Soucek right in the thick of it.

Mateus Fernandes To Be Shown A Card - 1pt

10/3 with Sky Bet

32.26% AI probability | 23.08% odds implied | 39.79% expected value

Fernandes is an appealing card pick in a game where Villa’s midfield draws the majority of fouls. With McGinn possibly back on the left, Fernandes has been in danger of bookings recently, accumulating four yellows in his last nine games with recent fouls: 5, 0, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2. Tierney referees and has handed out 3+ yellows in each of his last seven Premier League matches, making this a decent value play.

Dominic Solanke Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt

23/10 with Bet Victor

37.02% AI probability | 30.3% odds implied | 22.17% expected value

Solanke is the man leading Spurs’ line in a must-win against fellow relegation-threatened Nottingham Forest. He’s hit six goals in his last seven home appearances, and with Spurs likely to push forward following a confident display against Liverpool, Solanke is the key man to make the difference in front of goal.

Ylber Ramadani Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

1/1 with BetMGM

57.67% AI probability | 50% odds implied | 15.34% expected value

Ramadani has been impressively consistent lately, registering a shot in each of his recent outings against top sides like Inter, Napoli, and Como. Even in the reverse fixture against Roma, he managed to get off at least one effort. Expect him to continue that trend in this clash - a safe shot-angle selection.

Ylber Ramadani Shots: 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 3, 3, 2.

Vinicius Junior Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt

15/8 with Bet Victor

41.42% AI probability | 34.72% odds implied | 19.29% expected value

Vinicius has a knack for big moments - two goals against Man City in the Champions League midweek proved that. Real Madrid are chasing Barcelona in La Liga and now face fourth-placed Atletico in a fiery derby. The fixture has produced plenty of goals in recent editions (7 and 3 in the last two). With his talent and Madrid’s attacking intent, Vinicius is always capable of finding the net.