How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Sunday's Results:

Tomas Soucek Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - LOST
Mateus Fernandes To Be Shown A Card - 1pt - LOST
Dominic Solanke Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt - LOST
Ylber Ramadani Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - 1/1 - WON
Vinicius Junior Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt - 15/8 - WON

2025/26 Season P+L: +24.05pts

Tip 1: Gabriel Landeskog — Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt

Best odds: 9/4 (BetMGM / Sky Bet / Paddy Power)

Landeskog’s “anytime” case is strong because he’s back in the lineup and immediately impactful — he returned recently from a lower-body issue and scored straight away, which is a huge indicator that his minutes/usage are already back in a goalscoring range. 

This matchup also suits: Colorado generate elite shot and goal volume this season, while Pittsburgh’s defensive profile has been shakier lately (including conceding heavily in recent games), which increases the number of high-danger looks available for top-six finishers. 

And crucially for “anytime” wagers, Landeskog’s role gives him multiple routes to score (even strength + net-front/slot work), so you’re not relying on a single “one-timer” script to land.

AI Prob 38.45% | Implied Prob 30.3% | EV 26.89%

Tip 2: Juraj Slafkovský — Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt

Best odds: 39/20 (BetMGM)

Slafkovský is the profile you want for an anytime ticket: he’s producing at genuine top-line rates this season (goals + points) and plays big minutes, including power-play usage. 

His recent involvement is also trending the right way — he’s been piling shots and scoring chances in recent game logs, which keeps the goal probability “sticky” even against strong opponents. 

With Carolina’s tempo typically pushing games into higher event counts (more shot attempts both ways), you’re effectively buying more opportunities for a top-line shooter to bury one.

AI Prob 45.9% | Implied Prob 33.9% | EV 35.3%

Tip 3: Juraj Slafkovský — Over 2.5 Shots on Target - 1pt

Best odds: 6/5 (Sky Bet & Paddy Power)

This is a classic volume angle: Slafkovský has 31 shots across his last 10 games (3.1 per game), which directly supports a 2.5 line. 

He’s also playing heavy minutes (often ~18–21 TOI in recent logs), and that ice time matters because shots are largely a minutes + role bet. 

Against Carolina, Montreal should still get enough transition and PP looks to keep his shot count alive — and given his recent shot frequency, you don’t need a perfect game script to reach three.

AI Prob 55.4% | Implied Prob 46.5% | EV 19.1%

Tip 4: Matthew Knies — Under 0.5 Points - 1pt

Best odds: 23/20 (widely available)

The argument here is variance + opponent quality: Knies is obviously capable (strong season totals), but his recent log shows plenty of “no point” outcomes, and that’s exactly what you’re buying with Under 0.5. 

Boston is also the type of matchup that can suppress secondary production — the Bruins’ defensive/goalie setup at TD Garden often forces opponents into lower-quality looks, which makes it harder for fringe points to appear. 

And with Toronto coming in off a poor run (including a three-game skid per previews), the “one point needed to beat us” nature of this market becomes attractive when the EV tool is shading toward the under.

AI Prob 54.2% | Implied Prob 45.9% | EV 18.2%

Tip 5: Donervon Daniels — Over 0.5 Shots vs Notts County — 1pt

Best odds: 21/20 (betway)

This is a set-piece/chaos market more than a “shooter” market — for defenders, one attempt can come from corners, second balls, or a late scramble, and Daniels has shown he’s getting those opportunities often enough (1+ shot hit 5 in last 10).

Team context helps: Oldham vs Notts County projects as a competitive League Two fixture where Oldham should still generate some dead-ball volume at Boundary Park, keeping the “one shot” route live.

AI Prob 60.7% | Implied Prob 48.8% | EV 24.5%