How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Saturday Results:

Mamadou Sangare - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - Best odds of 21/20 - LOST
Ronald Araujo - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - Best odds of 1/1 - LOST
Jamie Leweling - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt - Best odds of 11/10 - VOID
Nicolo Fagioli - Over 0.5 Shots - 1.5pt - Best odds of 8/11 - WON

2025/26 Season P+L: +21.64pts

Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich

Aurélien Tchouaméni – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

39/20 with BetMGM

54.67% AI probability | 46.51% odds implied | 17.54% expected value

Tchouaméni has shown a steady level of shot output recently, recording 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 4, 3, 2 in his last eight appearances. Playing at home, and with Real Madrid expected to push for a result, he should have opportunities to get forward and add to his shooting numbers.

Federico Valverde – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

11/10 with 10Bet

71.19% AI probability | 47.62% odds implied | 49.5% expected value

Valverde continues to be a major attacking threat from right midfield, with recent returns of 4, 1, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3. He has scored six goals in his last five appearances, including a hat-trick against Man City in the previous round. Operating from the right midfield area, he consistently gets into shooting positions and remains a key outlet for Madrid.

Luis Díaz – Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt

10/13 with BetMGM

63.88% AI probability | 56.18% odds implied | 13.71% expected value

Díaz ranks among the most consistent shooters in the side, averaging strong volumes both domestically and in Europe. His recent overall shot profile reads 4, 5, 4, 4, 1, 2, 1, 3, 2, 5, 2, 2, 1, 3, 3, 2, 5, while in the Champions League he has produced 5, 4, 2, 1, 2, 4, 3, 2, 3. As one of the team’s primary attacking threats, he should again see enough chances to clear this line.

Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal

Gabriel Martinelli – Over 1.5 Shots -1pt

10/13 with BetMGM

62.37% AI probability | 56.18% implied | 11.02% expected value

Martinelli continues to be a reliable shooter from wide areas, with recent returns of 5, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 4. In the Champions League specifically, his shot output has been even more consistent: 2, 4, 2, 2, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2. Operating in advanced positions, he remains well placed to contribute multiple attempts again.

Wrexham vs Southampton

Ross Stewart – Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt

27/10 with BetMGM

32.25% AI probability | 27.03% implied | 19.33% expected value

Stewart comes into this on the back of confidence after scoring against Arsenal FC in the FA Cup, showing composure to finish past Kepa Arrizabalaga. With four goals in his last seven appearances, he looks in a good run of form and capable of continuing that momentum in front of goal.