How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Sunday's Results:

Rodri - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - Best odds of 11/10 - LOST
Federico Dimarco - Over 1.5 Shots - 1.5pt - Best odds of 21/20 - LOST
Matthias Ginter - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt - Best odds of 1/1 - WON
Pape Diop - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - Best odds of 1/1 - VOID

Running P/L: +15.1 pts

Liverpool vs PSG

Florian Wirtz – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

29/20 with Ladbrokes/Coral

62.15% AI probability | 46.51% odds implied | 33.62% expected value

Wirtz’s defensive output is often overlooked, but the numbers are strong. He’s averaging 1.7 tackles per game across his last 10, clearing this line in five of those matches, and even recorded three in the reverse fixture. With Liverpool needing to chase the game from two goals down, expect a high-tempo contest with plenty of pressing - something that should suit Wirtz’s work rate off the ball.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia – Over 2.5 Shots

1/1 with 10Bet

54.57% AI probability | 50% odds implied | 9.14% expected value

Even with a two-goal cushion, PSG are not a side built to sit back. Whether dominating possession or breaking quickly, Kvaratskhelia remains central to their attacking threat. He fired off seven shots in the reverse fixture and has cleared this line in seven of his last 11 matches, averaging 3.6 shots per 90 away from home. Expect him to remain heavily involved again.

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Mohamed Salah – Over 2.5 Shots -1pt

23/25 with BetMGM

67.09% AI probability | 52.63% odds implied | 27.47% expected value

Salah should be highly motivated here after missing the first leg, and his recent output suggests he’s ready to respond. He fired five shots and scored against Fulham over the weekend and is averaging 3.67 shots per 90 across his last 11 games, clearing this line six times in that stretch. With Liverpool needing goals, expect Salah to take on the responsibility and get plenty of attempts away. This could be his last Champions League appearance for Liverpool and he won't go down without a fight.

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona

Marcos Llorente – Over 2.5 Tackles - 1pt

5/6 with Bet Victor

66.5% AI probability | 54.65% odds implied | 21.7% expected value

This setup suits Llorente perfectly. Atletico bring a two-goal lead back to the Metropolitano, which plays directly into Diego Simeone’s strengths - compact shape, low block, and relentless defensive work. That should mean sustained pressure from the opposition and plenty of tackling opportunities for Llorente in midfield.