After three winners from three last night, the EV Eagle picks out four value bets from Wednesday's Champions League games.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterday's Results:
Florian Wirtz – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt - 29/20 WON
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia – Over 2.5 Shots - 1/1 WON
Mohamed Salah – Over 2.5 Shots -1pt - 23/25 VOID
Marcos Llorente – Over 2.5 Tackles - 1pt - 5/6 WON
Running P/L: +18.28 pts
Bayern vs Real Madrid
Harry Kane – Over 1.5 Shots on Target - 1pt
21/20 with Bet Victor
49.02% AI probability | 48.78% odds implied | 0.49% expected value
There’s not a huge edge here, but it’s difficult to ignore Kane’s numbers. He’s averaging 2.9 shots on target per game across his last 16, hitting 2+ in 13 of those matches. At home, those figures improve even further - 3.8 shots on target per game across his last nine, clearing this line in every one. Purely on volume, this is hard to leave out.
Dayot Upamecano – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt
11/10 with Coral/Ladbrokes
64.57% AI probability | 47.62% odds implied | 35.6% expected value
Upamecano offers strong value here given his consistent defensive output. He averages 2.14 tackles per game over his last 20, the highest in the Bayern squad, and has gone over this line in 11 of those matches. With Bayern protecting a 2-1 lead at home, expect sustained pressure from attackers like Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé, which should create plenty of tackling opportunities. He also recorded three in the reverse fixture.
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Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon
Luis Suárez – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt
9/5 with Ladbrokes/Coral
57.25% AI probability | 46.51% odds implied | 23.09% expected value
Suárez is a strong fouls angle in what could be a frustrating away game. He averages 1.44 fouls per game across his last 20 and has committed at least one in every Champions League match this season. Historically, strikers facing Arsenal FC average 1.6 fouls per game, and Suárez has gone over this line in 10 of his last 20 away matches - a solid setup for another busy night.
William Saliba – 1+ Foul Won - 1pt
1/1 with bet365
With Suárez likely to engage physically and press from the front, Arsenal’s centre-backs should be drawn into duels. Saliba, who is comfortable carrying the ball out from the back, could benefit from that pressure and pick up at least one foul won in the process.
