How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Harry Kane – Over 1.5 Shots on Target - 1pt - 21/20  WON
Dayot Upamecano – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt - 11/10 WON
Luis Suárez – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - 9/5 LOST
William Saliba – 1+ Foul Won - 1pt - 1/1  WON

 Running P/L: +20.33 pts

Real Betis vs Braga

Abdessamad Ezzalzouli – To Score or Assist -1 pt

13/10 with Virgin Bet

49.55% AI Probability | 42.92% Odds Implied | 15.45% Expected Value

Ezzalzouli has been a steady contributor in the final third, averaging 0.48 goal involvements per 90 across his last 20 appearances. This has landed in 10 of those matches and in five of his last 10 Europa League outings. With the tie finely poised at 1-1, he’s well placed to have a decisive impact again.

Sofyan Amrabat – Over 0.5 Shots -1 pt

23/20 with BetMGM

57.24% AI Probability | 46.51% Odds Implied | 23.07% Expected Value

Amrabat is quietly offering a consistent shooting threat, registering at least one effort in four of his last six Europa League ties and four of his last six in all competitions. At these odds, backing him to have a single attempt looks strong value.

5.0
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Nottingham Forest vs Porto

Elliot Anderson – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

19/20 with Ladbrokes

57.72% AI Probability | 51.28% Odds Implied | 12.55% Expected Value

Anderson is Nottingham Forest’s most active fouler, averaging 1.5 per 90. He’s committed at least one foul in 18 of his last 20 starts and hit 2+ in eight of those. Given his role and intensity, this line looks very achievable.

Celta Vigo vs Freiburg

Matthias Ginter – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt

17/20 with Ladbrokes

62.7% AI Probability | 54.05% Odds Implied | 16% Expected Value

Ginter continues to get involved physically, committing at least one foul in eight of his last nine matches. With nine fouls across his last six games, his consistency in this market makes him a solid selection.

Maximilian Eggestein – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

3/4 with BetMGM

76.42% AI Probability | 56.82% Odds Implied | 34.5% Expected Value

Eggestein’s shot volume is excellent for this line, landing in 16 of his last 20 matches while averaging 1.4 shots per game. With that level of consistency, just one attempt again looks highly likely.