How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Odsonne Edouard - Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt - VOID
Mamadou Sangare - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - WON @ 57/50
Martin Baturina - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt - LOST
Jack Rudoni - To Score Or Assist - 0.75pts - LOST
Sebastiano Esposito - To Score Or Assist - 0.75pts - LOST

 Running P/L: +18.83 pts

Today's Selections:

Chelsea v Man Utd

Tip 1: Bruno Fernandes - To Score Or Assist - 1pt

Best odds of 13/10 at BetMGM UK while publishing.

AI Probability 48% | Implied Probability 43% | EV 10%

This leg is built around consistency and involvement. Bruno Fernandes has registered a goal or assist in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5, which tells you he’s regularly at the centre of everything Manchester United do in attack.

He’s in top form right now and remains one of the most reliable contributors in terms of goal involvement. Whether it’s creating chances, taking set pieces, or arriving late into the box, he’s constantly involved in key moments.

There’s also added motivation. With 17 assists and 8 goals in the league, he’s pushing towards the assist charts, which only increases his likelihood of being involved again. United have scored the third most goals in the league and Bruno is very often part of it, either as the creator or the finisher.

Tottenham vs Brighton

Tip 2: Pascal Gross - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 8/11 at Coral while publishing.

AI Probability 68% | Implied Probability 58% | EV 17%

Gross has gone over this line in 4 of his last 5 games, with returns of 2, 1, 3, 3, 2, showing he’s regularly involved defensively even in varied game states.

Since rejoining in the winter window, he’s been a key part of the setup, starting 12 games in a row. That kind of security in minutes is crucial for tackle lines. Over his last 10 league games, he’s averaging 1.81 tackles per game, which puts him right above this line.

He’s consistently on the pitch, involved in midfield duels, and regularly doing enough to clear this number.

Frankfurt vs Leipzig

Tip 3: Christoph Baumgartner - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

Best odds of 1/1 at SpreadEx while publishing.

AI Probability 59% | Implied Probability 50% | EV 18%

Baumgartner has exceeded this line in 7 of his last 10 games, and more importantly, he’s averaging over 2 fouls per game across his last 15 league matches.

His recent numbers (0, 3, 2, 4, 3, 0, 4, 1, 2, 2) show that while there are occasional dips, he often commits multiple fouls when fully involved. The away data strengthens the case even more, with consistent returns like 3, 4, 2, 2, 3, 2, 3, 2, suggesting he stays active and aggressive on the road.

This is very much a style-driven pick. He presses, gets into duels, and doesn’t shy away from contact, which naturally leads to fouls.

Roma vs Atalanta

Tip 4: Evan NDicka - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 1/1 at BetMGM UK while publishing.

AI Probability 57% | Implied Probability 50% | EV 15%

This is a solid consistency-based angle, especially for a defender. Ndicka has registered at least one shot in 8 of his last 10 games, with returns of 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 0, 1, showing he regularly gets into positions to have an attempt.

For a centre-back, that level of involvement is impressive. He averages 0.7 shots per game in the league, which is comfortably above what you’d expect from a defender and puts this line firmly within reach.

Most of his threat likely comes from set pieces or attacking phases where he pushes forward, but the key point is consistency. He doesn’t need volume, just one moment, and he’s been finding that regularly.

Angers vs Le Havre

Tip 5: Jordan Lefort - Over 1.5 Tackles - 0.75pt

Best odds of 11/10 at Ladbrokes while publishing.

AI Probability 61% | Implied Probability 48% | EV 28%

Lefort has gone over this line in 7 of his last 9 games, which shows he’s regularly involved defensively.

His recent returns (2, 0, 3, 3, 3) suggest that when he is active in the game, he usually clears the line comfortably, often with multiple tackles rather than just scraping through.

He averages 1.47 tackles per game over his last 15, slightly below the line, but his recent form points to an uptick in defensive involvement, which keeps this angle appealing.