How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Bruno Fernandes To Score Or Assist best odds 13/10 BetMGM UK 1pt WON
Pascal Gross Over 1.5 Tackles best odds 8/11 Coral 1pt WON
Christoph Baumgartner Over 1.5 Fouls best odds 1/1 SpreadEx 1pt LOST
Evan Ndicka Over 0.5 Shots best odds 1/1 BetMGM UK 1pt WON
Jordan Lefort Over 1.5 Tackles best odds 11/10 Ladbrokes 0.75pt WON

Running P/L: +21.69pts

Man City vs Arsenal

Rayan Cherki Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Odds 57/50 BetMGM
AI Probability 73.79 percent
Odds Implied Probability 46.73 percent
Expected Value plus 57.91 percent

Cherki has cleared this line in 7 of his last 11 matches and remains one of City's most frequent shooters when drifting into central pockets. With a significant gap between model probability and bookmaker pricing, this stands out as one of the strongest value angles.

Aston Villa vs Sunderland

Ollie Watkins Over 0.5 Fouls Committed - 1pt

Odds 4/5 Betway
AI Probability 65.69 percent
Odds Implied Probability 55.56 percent
Expected Value plus 18.24 percent

Watkins commits at least one foul in the majority of matches. His pressing role and frequent duels make this line consistently beatable, with the model showing a clear edge over the market.

Ollie Watkins Fouls Committed: 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 3, 3, 4, 0, 1, 1, 0

Everton vs Liverpool

Virgil van Dijk Over 0.5 Fouls Committed - 1pt

Odds 17/20 Ladbrokes Coral
AI Probability 61.06 percent
Odds Implied Probability 54.05 percent
Expected Value plus 12.96 percent

Van Dijk has committed at least one foul in 7 of his last 12 appearances. Against physical or pace driven forwards, he is increasingly forced into contact, and the model prices this higher than the market.

Virgil van Dijk Fouls Committed: 1, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2, 1,

Kiernan Dewsbury Hall Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt

Odds 5/4 10Bet
AI Probability 49.1 percent
Odds Implied Probability 46.51 percent
Expected Value plus 5.56 percent

Dewsbury Hall has landed a shot on target in 6 of his last 11 and has recently tested top opposition. This offers a small but genuine value edge at plus money.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Shots on Target: 2, 2, 1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 0

Hit against Chelsea and Arsenal in last 4.

Rio Ngumoha Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt

Odds 23/20 BetMGM
AI Probability 60.37 percent
Odds Implied Probability 46.51 percent
Expected Value plus 29.8 percent

Ngumoha averages 1.84 shots on target per 90, the highest in the Liverpool squad. Direct and aggressive in attack, he consistently gets efforts on goal and represents a standout value selection.

Came off the bench and got a shot on target against psg. 2 on target in his recent start against Fulham, including a goal.