How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Rayan Cherki Over 1.5 Shots — 57/50 — 1pt WON
Ollie Watkins Over 0.5 Fouls Committed — 4/5 — 1pt WON
Virgil van Dijk Over 0.5 Fouls Committed — 17/20 — 1pt WON
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Over 0.5 Shots on Target — 5/4 — 1pt LOST
Rio Ngumoha Over 0.5 Shots on Target — 23/20 — 1pt VOID

Running P/L: 23.53pts

EV Eagle's Crystal Palace vs West Ham Bet Builder

  • Mateus Fernandes – Over 1.5 Fouls — 5/4 (Ladbrokes)
  • Ismaila Sarr – Over 0.5 Fouls — 3/4 (Ladbrokes)
  • Taty Castellanos – Over 1.5 Fouls — 11/10 (Ladbrokes)

Best price 25/4 with Ladbrokes at the time of posting.

Advised Stake: 1 point staked

EV Eagle's Crystal Palace vs West Ham Betting Tips

Mateus Fernandes – Over 1.5 Fouls (5/4 Ladbrokes) 1 pt

Fernandes has landed this in 8 of his last 11 games, showing a consistently high foul profile from midfield.

Fouls committed: 3, 4, 2, 5, 0, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2

AI probability 56.77% | Odds implied 47.62% | EV 19.22%

Konstantinos Mavropanos – Over 1.5 Tackles (5/4 Ladbrokes) - 1pt

Mavropanos has landed this in 7 of his last 9 games, reflecting a strong and repeatable defensive involvement rate.

Tackles made: 3, 3, 3, 1, 3, 0, 3, 2, 2

AI probability 56.77% | Odds implied 50.00% | EV 13.54%

Ismaila Sarr – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt (3/4 with ladbrokes) - 1pt

Sarr has landed this in 9 of his last 14 games, with a lighter but still consistent foul profile from wide attacking positions.

Fouls committed: 1, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1

AI probability 70.10% | Odds implied 57.14% | EV 22.67%

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Taty Castellanos – Over 1.5 Fouls (11/10 Ladbrokes) 1pt

Castellanos has landed this in 11 of his last 14 games, showing a mid-range foul output with some volatility depending on match context.

Fouls committed: 2, 3, 1, 2, 0, 3, 3, 2, 3, 0, 2, 3, 4, 2

AI probability 48.17% | Odds implied 47.62% | EV 1.16%