The EV Eagle is +7pts over the past seven days and has five betting tips for Tuesday's football.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterday's Result:
Crystal Palace vs West Ham Bet Builder - 1pt - LOST
2025/26 Season P+L: +22.5pts
Jack Hinshelwood - Over 1.5 Shots vs Chelsea - 1pt
Best odds of 6/5 with BetMGM when publishing.
Brighton midfielder Jack Hinshelwood has enjoyed a run of having over 1.5 shots in 8 of his previous 11 starts.
His side host a free-falling Chelsea side in a must-win game for both sides who are looking to qualify for Europe.
Look for Hinshelwood to hit the 2+ shots line for the fourth time in five home games.
When betting with Super Sub or a similar sub-protected bet, Hinshelwood over 1.5 shots would've landed in 10/11 matches. William Hill is the best price with this offering at 19/20 when publishing (1.5pt stake advised).
64% AI Probability | 46% Implied Probability | 39% Expected Value
Marc Cucurella - Over 1.5 Fouls vs Brighton - 1pt
Best odds of 13/8 with Coral/Ladbrokes when publishing.
While recent data doesn't support this bet (only landed 4 in 10 matches), Cucurella's recent foul form versus his old side points to value here.
In three of his previous four meetings against Brighton, Cucurella has exceeded the 2+ foul line and was booked in two of those matches.
He could come against Brighton's Yankuba Minteh, who has been fouled at least once in 12 of his previous 15 appearances.
Expect Cucurella to be in the thick of it against his old side in what should be a fiery atmosphere on the South Coast.
51% AI Probability | 47% Implied Probability | 10% Expected Value
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Lewis Dunk - Over 0.5 Fouls vs Chelsea - 1pt
Best odds of 11/10 with Coral/Ladbrokes when publishing.
Another bet that looks overpriced is Lewis Dunk to pick up at least one foul vs Chelsea.
He should come up against former teammate Joao Pedro on Tuesday who has been fouled at least once in 14/18 Chelsea starts.
Dunk also has at least one foul in 5/10 starts and 10 fouls in 13 career appearances vs Chelsea.
55% AI Probability | 48% Implied Probability | 15% Expected Value
Brighton vs Chelsea Bet Builder
Jack Hinshelwood 2+ Shots
Marc Cucurella 2+ Fouls
Lewis Dunk 1+ Foul
8/1 on Coral/Ladbrokes (0.5pts advised)
Vitor Reis - Over 1.5 Tackles vs Real Betis - 1pt
Best odds of 23/20 with Coral/Ladbrokes when publishing.
It's hard to look past Vitor Reis tackles on Tuesday considering his had 2+ in all six previous starts for Girona.
Reis comes up against Betis on Tuesday who have the eighth highest average ball possesion in the league and could face Betis striker Cucho Hernandez who has been dispossessed 2 or more times in 7/10 starts.
57% AI Probability | 47% Implied Probability | 23% Expected Value
Kasey Palmer - Anytime Goalscorer vs Rotherham - 0.75pts
Best odds of 17/5 with BetMGM / Virgin Bet when publishing.
Luton Town's Kasey Palmer has hit a hot streak of late scoring in five of his previous eight appearances, recording at least one shot on target in nine consecutive matches.
His play-off chasing team travel to League Two-bound Rotherham on Tuesday looking to close the gap on Stevenage in sixth and this fixture looks primed for Palmer to continue his scoring streak.
Rotherham have conceded 2+ goals in five of their previous 10 matches and Luton have scored 2+ in 7/8 matches.
42% AI Probability | 23% Implied Probability | 84% Expected Value
