The EV Eagle had 2 winners from 4 bets yesterday and is back with four tips for Thursday's La Liga, including a 4/1 card bet.
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When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Wednesday's Results:
Eiran Cashin - 0.5 Shots vs Sheffield Utd - 1pt - 23/20 - LOST
Marcos Senesi - Over 0.5 Shots vs Leeds - 1pt - 11/8 - WON
Ethan Ampadu - Over 0.5 Shots vs Bournemouth - 1pt - 11/10 - LOST
Mauro Arambarri - Over 1.5 Fouls vs Real Sociedad - 1pt - 1/1 - WON
Mikel Oyarzabal - Anytime Goalscorer vs Getafe - 1pt - VOID
2025/26 Season P+L: +24.63pts
Kike Salas - Over 1.5 Tackles vs Levante - 1.5pt
Best odds of 21/20 with Coral / Ladbrokes when publishing.
Sevilla FC defender Kike Salas has been a consistent performer in the tackles market, recording 2+ tackles in 13 of his 18 starts this season, and hitting that line in seven of his last nine appearances.
Operating on the right side of central defence — his expected role tonight — further strengthens the angle. Against Levante UD, right-sided centre-backs have recorded 2+ tackles in four of the last six matchups, highlighting a clear positional trend.
With odds available at over evens with Coral/Ladbrokes, compared to as short as 1/3 elsewhere, this stands out as a strong value play supported by both recent form and matchup data.
59% AI Probability | 49% Implied Probability | 20% Expected Value
Carlos Espi - Anytime Goalscorer vs Sevilla - 1pt
Best odds of 2/1 with Sky Bet when publishing.
Levante UD youngster Carlos Espí is in red-hot form, scoring five goals in his last five appearances, while registering nine shots on target across that spell — underlining both his volume and accuracy in front of goal.
With Levante locked in a must-win situation to avoid relegation, expect a more aggressive attacking approach, which should only increase Espí’s opportunities in the final third. Given his current confidence and shot output, he looks well placed to extend his scoring streak.
40% AI Probability | 33% Implied Probability | 20% Expected Value
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Georges Mikautadze - Anytime Goalscorer vs Real Oviedo - 1pt
Best odds of 21/10 with 10Bet when publishing.
Georges Mikautadze may not be in peak scoring form, with just one goal in his last six starts, but his underlying numbers suggest he’s due a turnaround.
The Georgian striker continues to get into strong positions, registering 2+ shots in 13 of his last 16 appearances, highlighting consistent attacking involvement despite the recent dip in output.
He now faces Real Oviedo, who own the third-worst defensive record in the league (48 goals conceded) and sit seven points from safety, with pressure mounting at the bottom. Against a struggling backline who are chasing a win, this looks like an ideal opportunity for Mikautadze to convert performance into goals — and at 2/1 or bigger, the value is clear.
43% AI Probability | 32% Implied Probability | 32% Expected Value
Juanlu Sanchez - To Be Shown A Card vs Levante - 1pt
Best odds of 13/5 with Coral / Ladbrokes when publishing.
Thursday’s clash between Levante UD and Sevilla FC sets up perfectly for a cards angle, particularly focusing on Juanlu.
Sevilla rank 4th in the league for away yellow cards (2.67 per game), while Levante sit 1st for fouls drawn/yellows won (2.52 per game) — a combination that consistently produces bookings. Add in the context of a must-win relegation battle, and the intensity is only likely to increase.
There’s also a clear positional trend at Levante's home ground. Right-backs facing Levante have struggled badly for discipline in recent weeks, with Femenía and Rincón both picking up bookings, while Mouriño somehow escaped a booking despite committing five fouls.
With the data, context, and positional matchup all aligned, Juanlu stands out as a strong candidate to enter the referee’s notebook on Thursday.
31% AI Probability | 28% Implied Probability | 12% Expected Value
