The EV Eagle has four Positive EV tips for Friday's football, including one for Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Thursday's Results:
Kike Salas - Over 1.5 Tackles vs Levante - 1.5pt - LOST
Carlos Espi - Anytime Goalscorer vs Sevilla - 1pt - LOST
Georges Mikautadze - Anytime Goalscorer vs Real Oviedo - 1pt - VOID
Juanlu Sanchez - To Be Shown A Card vs Levante - 1pt - LOST
2025/26 Season P+L: +21.13pts
Elliot Anderson - Over 1.5 Fouls vs Sunderland - 1.5pt
Best odds of 26/25 with BetMGM when publishing.
Elliot Anderson has started to show a clear upward trend in the fouls market, committing 2+ fouls in each of his last three appearances for Nottingham Forest — a pattern that could continue as the pressure ramps up.
Forest head into a crucial clash away at Sunderland AFC, sitting just five points clear of the relegation zone, and with little margin for error. Matches of this magnitude often become physical, particularly in midfield.
Elliot Anderson has started to show a clear upward trend in the fouls market, committing 2+ fouls in each of his last three appearances for Nottingham Forest — a pattern that could continue as the pressure ramps up.
Forest head into a crucial clash away at Sunderland AFC, sitting just five points clear of the relegation zone, and with little margin for error. Matches of this magnitude often become physical, particularly in midfield.
Anderson is likely to come up against a combative Sunderland engine room featuring Habib Diarra, Noah Sadiki, Enzo Le Fée and Granit Xhaka — a quartet averaging over 5 fouls won per game combined. With that matchup and the stakes involved, backing Anderson for 2+ fouls looks a strong, context-driven play.
58% AI Probability | 49% Implied Probability | 18% Expected Value
Mathias Olivera - Over 0.5 Shots vs Cremonese - 1pt
Best odds of 57/50 with BetMGM when publishing.
SSC Napoli defender Mathías Olivera has built a strong profile in the shots market, and Friday’s clash with US Cremonese looks an ideal opportunity to follow that trend.
Cremonese rank 1st in Serie A for shots conceded (16 per game) this season, facing a Napoli side that sit inside the top five for shots taken, creating a favourable environment for attacking returns across the pitch.
Olivera has recorded at least one shot in 12 of his 17 home starts, and comes into this fixture on a run of three consecutive matches with an attempt. Against a defensively vulnerable opponent, he looks well placed to make it four in a row.
58% AI Probability | 47% Implied Probability | 24% Expected Value
BetMGM UK
Federico Bonazzoli - Over 0.5 Shots On Target vs Napoli - 1pt
Best odds of 11/10 with BetMGM when publishing.
Sticking in Naples, we are backing Cremonese's Bonazzoli to hit the target at least once in Friday's fixture.
In a near must-win game for Cremonese, expect more attacking intent than usual against a Napoli side, giving more opportunities for Bonazzoli.
Bonazzoli's last six appearances has seen him land at least one shot on target in five of those and has racked up eight shots on target in the process.
As well as the 1+ line, we are advising a 0.25pt stake on the 2+ shot on target line (best price of 7/1 with 10Bet).
54% AI Probability | 48% Implied Probability | 14% Expected Value
Yan Diomande - Anytime Goalscorer vs Union Berlin - 0.75pts
Best odds of 17/10 with QuinnBet when publishing.
Our final tip for Friday comes in the Bundesliga, where RB Leipzig look to strengthen their grip on a Champions League place.
They host 1. FC Union Berlin, who rank inside the top six for goals conceded this season, facing a Leipzig side that have scored 2+ goals in four of their last five home matches — underlining their attacking strength at the Red Bull Arena.
Yan Diomande has been a key beneficiary of that form, scoring in three of those five home games and registering a shot on target in nine of his 12 home starts. With Leipzig pushing for Europe and Union Berlin drifting in mid-table, Diomande looks well placed to get on the scoresheet again.
43% AI Probability | 38% Implied Probability | 14% Expected Value
