EV Eagle returns with five carefully picked betting tips for Saturday’s European action, focusing on some of the standout fixtures across the continent.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Friday's Results:
Elliot Anderson - Over 1.5 Fouls vs Sunderland - 1.5pt - WON @ 26/25
Mathias Olivera - Over 0.5 Shots vs Cremonese - 1pt - LOST
Federico Bonazzoli - Over 0.5 Shots On Target vs Napoli - 1pt - WON @ 11/10
Yan Diomande - Anytime Goalscorer vs Union Berlin - 0.75pts - LOST
2025/26 Season P+L: +21.88pts
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Arsenal vs Newcastle
Tip 1: Malick Thiaw - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1.5pt
Best odds of 8/11 at Betway while publishing.
70% AI Probability | 58% Implied Probability | 22% Expected Value
Malick Thiaw is tipped to commit over 0.5 fouls in this matchup, with an AI-projected 1.2 fouls expected. The centre-back has gone over this line in 8 of his last 10 games, with recent foul counts reading 1, 2, 1, 0, and 3. Facing Arsenal away will be a tough assignment, especially with fatigue setting in late in the season. Arsenal, having lost their place at the top of the Premier League table, are also expected to attack aggressively, which could force Thiaw into more defensive actions.
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao
Tip 2: Nahuel Molina - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt
Best odds of 1/1 available at Betway while publishing.
58% AI Probability | 50% Implied Probability | 17% Expected Value
Nahuel Molina is also backed to go over 0.5 fouls. He has cleared this line in 4 of his last 5 matches, with his recent foul record standing at 0, 1, 1, 1, and 1. He averages 0.84 fouls per 90 in his last 10 league games and even committed 2 fouls in the return leg. Notably, he has also cleared this line in both of his last two appearances against Athletic Bilbao, suggesting consistency in this market.
Hamburg vs Hoffeinheim
Tip 3: Wouter Burger - Over 2.5 Tackles - 0.75pt
Best odds of 11/10 at William Hill while publishing.
Wouter Burger looks strong for over 2.5 tackles, having cleared this line in all of his last five games. His recent tackle counts read 3, 3, 7, 3, and 4, and he is averaging 3.14 tackles per game across his last 20 Bundesliga matches. He also cleared this line in the return leg, reinforcing his reliability in defensive duels.
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Bologna vs Roma
Tip 4: Evan NDicka - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt
Best odds of 1/1 at Ladbrokes while publishing.
58% AI Probability | 50% Implied Probability | 17% Expected Value
Evan Ndicka is backed to register over 0.5 shots, a line he has beaten in 8 of his last 10 matches. He averages 1.16 shots per game over his last 10 outings, with shot counts of 2, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, and 0, showing regular involvement in attacking set pieces and second-phase opportunities.
Angers vs PSG
Tip 5: Jordan Lefort - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt
Best odds of 10/11 at Ladbrokes while publishing.
67% AI Probability | 52% Implied Probability | 27% Expected Value
Jordan Lefort completes the selection with over 1.5 tackles, a line he has cleared in 8 of his last 10 games. His recent tackle returns are 2, 2, 0, 3, and 3, while he averages 1.45 tackles per game across his last 20 matches. At home, his consistency continues with tackle counts of 2, 0, 3, 1, and 3 in his last five home games, making him a steady defensive contributor.
