How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Saturday's Results: 

Malick Thiaw - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1.5pt - LOST
Nahuel Molina - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt - VOID
Wouter Burger - Over 2.5 Tackles - 0.75pt - WON @ 11/10
Evan NDicka - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - LOST
Jordan Lefort - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt - LOST

2025/26 Season P+L: +19.13pts

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New UK customers. Place a £10 real money bet at min. 2.0 odds within 5 days of first deposit. Receive 4 x £10 Free Bets: 1 Single, 2 Accas (min. 3 selections), 1 Bet Builder (min. 3 selections). Excludes cashout, E/W, Multis, Virtuals & Odds Boosts. Credited after bet settlement. 7-day expiry. T&Cs apply.

Osasuna vs Sevilla

Tip 1: Valentin Rosier - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 11/10 at Coral.

Valentin Rosier stands out as a strong pick for over 0.5 shots, having cleared this line in each of his last five matches. He is averaging over one shot per game across his last 10 outings, underlining his growing attacking involvement. His recent shot counts of 1, 1, 3, 2, and 1 show consistent output, especially for a player not primarily known for goal threat, making him a reliable option in this market.

Dortmund vs Frieburg

Tip 2: Matthias Ginter - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt

Best odds of 1/1 at William Hill while publishing.

Matthias Ginter is backed to commit over 0.5 fouls, a line he has exceeded in 8 of his last 10 games. He averages 0.60 fouls per game during that period, with recent counts of 0, 0, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, and 1. Given his role in a physically demanding defensive setup, Ginter is regularly involved in duels, which increases the likelihood of him committing at least one foul.

AC Milan vs Juventus

Tip 3: Francisco Conceicao - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 10/13 available at BetMGM UK.

Francisco Conceicao looks well-placed to go over 1.5 shots, having cleared this mark in 7 of his last 8 club matches. His recent shot numbers of 4, 1, 2, 3, 3, 6, 3, 3, 1, and 1 highlight his attacking intent and confidence in front of goal. Operating in advanced areas and often taking on defenders, he has become a consistent shooting outlet and should continue to test the opposition defence.

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Bet £10 Get £40 In Free Bets
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New UK customers. Place a £10 real money bet at min. 2.0 odds within 5 days of first deposit. Receive 4 x £10 Free Bets: 1 Single, 2 Accas (min. 3 selections), 1 Bet Builder (min. 3 selections). Excludes cashout, E/W, Multis, Virtuals & Odds Boosts. Credited after bet settlement. 7-day expiry. T&Cs apply.

Torino vs Inter

Tip 4: Marcus Thuram - Over 0.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 8/11 at Coral.

Marcus Thuram is another dependable selection for over 0.5 tackles, having gone over this line in 9 of his last 10 games. He averages 1.5 tackles across his last 25 matches in all competitions, which is impressive for a forward. His recent tackle counts of 2, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, and 1 reflect his work rate off the ball, particularly in pressing situations where he frequently contributes defensively.

Marseille vs Nice

Tip 5: Jonathan Clauss - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 7/8 at Betway.

Jonathan Clauss completes the list for over 0.5 shots, having cleared this line in 6 of his last 7 games. Across his last 15 matches, he averages just over one shot per game, showing his consistent involvement going forward from wide areas. His recent shot counts of 1, 2, 2, 0, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, and 0 reinforce his tendency to get into attacking positions regularly, making him a dependable option to register at least one attempt.