How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Monday's Results:

Amad Diallo - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt - WON @ 10/11
Dango Ouattara - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt - LOST
Bet Builder - 0.25pts - LOST
Urko Gonzalez - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - LOST
Oumar Solet - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt - LOST 

2025/26 Season P+L: +18.38pts

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Friday Selections

Leeds vs Burnley

Tip 1: Jaidon Anthony - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 23/20 available at BetMGM UK while publishing.

Jaidon Anthony is a solid pick for over 1.5 shots, having cleared this line in 3 of his last 5 away games. He averages 1.92 shots per game across his last 20 appearances, showing consistent attacking involvement. His recent shot counts of 1, 0, 1, 3, 5, 2, 5, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, and 1 highlight his ability to regularly test the opposition. With Burnley already relegated and Leeds all but safe, this could open up into a more relaxed, attacking contest, which should suit Anthony’s style.

Girona vs Malaga

Tip 2: Daley Blind - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt

Best odds of 19/20 at Ladbrokes while publishing.

Daley Blind is backed to commit over 0.5 fouls, a line he has cleared in 7 of his last 10 games and 4 of his last 5. His recent foul count of 1, 1, 1, 1, and 0 shows how consistently he gets involved defensively. He is also likely to come up against forwards like Vedat Muriqi and Virgili, who draw an average of 1.8 and 0.8 fouls per game respectively, increasing the chances of Blind being forced into challenges.

Pisa vs Lecce

Tip 3: Antonio Caracciolo - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 4/5 at Coral while publishing.

Antonio Caracciolo is a strong pick for over 1.5 tackles, having cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 games. His recent tackle counts of 1, 3, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2, 4, and 2 highlight just how consistent he has been defensively. He also boasts a strong record at home, averaging 2.21 tackles per game in his last 10 home matches and 2.14 across his last 15, making him one of the most reliable options for this selection.