How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Saturday's Results:

Konstantinos Mavropanos - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt - LOST
Ronald Araujo - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - VOID
Yan Diomande - To Score Or Assist - 1pt
Mamadou Sangare - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - WON (4/5)
Folarin Balogun - Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt - WON (10/11)

2025/26 Season P+L: +21.12pts

Dominik Szoboszlai Over 1.5 Shots vs Man United (1pt)

Best odds of 23/20 with 10Bet when publishing.

Szoboszlai appeals for Over 1.5 Shots having landed this in seven of his last 10 matches, including three consecutive away games.

He averages just under two shots per Premier League appearance this season, so the line is slightly below his usual output rather than requiring a spike.

With Salah absent, Liverpool should need more final-third responsibility from midfield, and Szoboszlai’s set-piece threat and willingness to shoot from range make him a natural candidate.

United’s defensive absences could also open space around the edge of the box, strengthening the case for another 2+ shot outing.

Marcus Thuram - Anytime Goalscorer vs Parma (1pt)

Best odds of 11/10 with BetMGM when publishing.

Marcus Thuram is the standout anytime scorer angle after finding the net in four consecutive Serie A matches, with five goals and two assists across that run.

His wider season profile supports it too, with 12 goals and five assists in Serie A for Inter, keeping him central to their attacking output.

The match context is strong, with Inter able to seal the Scudetto against Parma, so motivation and attacking intent should be high.

Thuram also scored in the reverse fixture against Parma earlier this season, adding a useful head-to-head angle to his current hot streak.

Betfred

  • Huge range of regular promotions
  • 24/7 live chat service
  • PickYourPunt builder for custom bets
£50 in Free Bets, When You Bet £10
Claim
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply.

Matti Peltola - Over 0.5 Shots vs New York City (1pt)

Best odds of 9/5 with Paddy Power when publishing.

Matti Peltola is a good fit for Over 0.5 Shots, having registered at least one effort in five straight D.C. United matches and in six of his previous seven starts.

His wider 2026 profile supports the angle too, with eight shots in 10 MLS matches, a solid baseline for a player listed as a defender/defensive midfielder.

D.C. also arrive with more attacking momentum after scoring seven goals across their last two matches, including a 3-2 comeback win over Orlando.

With NYCFC coming off a midweek Open Cup win, this could become open enough for D.C.’s midfield runners to chip in with attempts, making one Peltola shot a very achievable line.

Abdessamad Ezzalzouli - To Score/Assist vs Real Oviedo (1pt)

Best odds of 23/20 with Virgin Bet when publishing.

Abdessamad Ezzalzouli looks a strong To Score or Assist pick after producing at least one goal involvement in three of his last four matches, with the only blank in that run coming against Real Madrid.

Betis are expected to have the edge at home against Real Oviedo, whose defensive issues have been clear to see after conceding heavily across the campaign.

With Ezzalzouli in form and Betis carrying the greater final-third quality, he looks well placed to be involved if the hosts get on the scoresheet.

Matias Fernandez - Anytime Goalscorer vs Le Havre (1pt)

Best odds of 7/4 with bet365 when publishing.

Matias Fernandez is worth considering as an Anytime Goalscorer after scoring in three of his previous four Lille starts, including the winner against Paris FC last time out.

His season profile supports the run, with eight Ligue 1 goals and five assists, making him Lille’s joint-leading league scorer heading into the Le Havre game.

Lille also have strong home/match motivation as they chase a Champions League place, while Le Havre arrive 14th after conceding four in a 4-4 draw with Metz. With Fernandez

in form and operating as one of Lille’s main attacking outlets, he looks well placed to extend his scoring streak.