How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Wednesday's Results:

  • Johan Manzambi – Over 2.5 Shots vs Braga (1pt) – 11/10 with Coral/Ladbrokes  WON
  • Youri Tielemans – 2+ Fouls Committed vs Nottingham Forest (1pt) – 9/5 with Sporting Index/Sporting Life  WON
  • Vincenzo Grifo – To Score or Assist vs Braga (1pt) – 5/4 with Paddy Power  WON
  • Ollie Watkins – Anytime Goalscorer vs Nottingham Forest (1pt) – 11/8 widely available  WON
  • Matthias Ginter – To Be Shown a Card vs Braga (0.75pts) – 13/2 with 10Bet  LOST

2025/26 Season P+L: +30 pts

Valentin Rosier Over 0.5 Shots – 1pt

Odds Implied: 46.51% | AI Probability: 56.36% | Expected Value: 21.17%

11/10 with Betway

Valentin Rosier has been consistently involved offensively in recent matches and only failed to register a shot in three of his last 11 appearances.

Valentin Rosier Shots: 0, 1, 1, 1, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1

The data suggests the market may be underrating his chances of producing at least one effort here.

Carlos Espí Anytime Goalscorer – 1pt

Odds Implied: 36.36% | AI Probability: 38.13% | Expected Value: 4.86%

7/4 with bet365

Carlos Espí continues to post encouraging attacking numbers with five goals across his last nine appearances and strong underlying metrics supporting his recent output.

Carlos Espí Goals: 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 2, 1, 1, 0

Carlos Espí Expected Goals (xG): 0.24, 0, 0.51, 0.55, 0.14, 0.9, 0.37, 0.25, 0.17

Carlos Espí Shots: 2, 0, 4, 5, 2, 4, 4, 1, 3

With regular shooting volume and solid xG numbers, he looks capable of finding the net again.

Camiel Neghli Over 0.5 Shots On Target – 1pt

Odds Implied: 46.51% | AI Probability: 57.57% | Expected Value: 23.78%

6/5 with BetMGM

Camiel Neghli has been reliable for shots on target when operating in an advanced midfield role and has continued to contribute in front of goal recently.

Camiel Neghli Shots on Target: 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1

Scored in two of his last four.

Hit the target in 10 of his last 12 games playing in CAM.

The consistency of his recent numbers makes this price stand out positively.

Mohamed Belloumi Over 0.5 Shots On Target – 1pt

Odds Implied: 50% | AI Probability: 56.26% | Expected Value: 12.52%

1/1 with BetMGM

Mohamed Belloumi has been producing steady shots-on-target numbers whenever he starts and continues to average strong underlying figures.

Mohamed Belloumi Shots on Target: 0, 1, 1, 1 when starting

Averages 1.3 shots on target per 90.

With regular involvement in attacking areas, he looks well placed to force at least one save.

Oliver McBurnie Over 2.5 Shots – 1pt

Odds Implied: 48.78% | AI Probability: 52.59% | Expected Value: 7.81%

17/10 with Starsports

Oliver McBurnie heads into this match in strong attacking form and continues to see a healthy shot volume in recent games.

Oliver McBurnie Shots: 5, 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 0, 4, 2, 3, 3, 0, 1, 2, 1, 1, 0, 2

Four goals in his last five games.

Given his current confidence and recent shooting numbers, the line looks achievable once again.