How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Monday's Results

  • Conor Gallagher – To Be Shown A Card – 0.75pts – 29/10 LOST
  • Rodrigo Bentancur – To Be Shown A Card – 0.75pts – 9/4 LOST
  • Conor Gallagher + Rodrigo Bentancur – Both To Be Shown A Card (Double) – 0.25pts – 10/1 LOST
  • Richarlison – Anytime Goalscorer – 1pt – 31/20 LOST
  • Pedro Porro – Over 1.5 Shots – 1pt – 23/20 WON
  • Pascal Struijk – Over 1.5 Tackles – 1pt – 19/20 LOST

Running PL: +24.4pts

Flynn Downes To Be Shown A Card – 1pt

Odds Implied: 29.85% | AI Probability: 39.96% | Expected Value: 33.87%

47/20 with 10bet

Downes has been consistently involved defensively and arrives in strong card form, having been booked in each of his last three starts.

Flynn Downes Fouls Committed: 2, 4, 2, 1, 0, 3, 3, 1, 2, 1, 0, 3

He also faces a difficult individual matchup against a high-foul-drawing opponent.

Aidan Morris Fouls Won: 3, 1, 0, 7, 2, 1, 4, 1, 0, 2, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 3

With repeated foul involvement and a strong recent card trend, the price looks big.

Luke Graham Over 0.5 Shots – 1pt

Odds Implied: 48.78% | AI Probability: 68.37% | Expected Value: 40.16%

21/20 with Ladbrokes/Coral

Graham has shown a steady shot output across recent matches and regularly gets into positions to register at least one attempt.

Luke Graham Shots: 1, 1, 3, 0, 1, 0, 1, 2, 1, 2

He also benefits from facing a Kilmarnock side that allow an above-average number of shots in the league, which should increase his opportunities.

Carlos Espí Anytime Goalscorer – 1pt

Odds Implied: 30.77% | AI Probability: 37.1% | Expected Value: 20.58%

9/4 with Sky Bet

Espí remains a strong goal threat despite not scoring last time out, where he still generated strong underlying numbers.

Carlos Espí Expected Goals (xG): 0.74, 0.24, 0, 0.51, 0.55, 0.14, 0.9, 0.37, 0.25

He produced nine shots and 0.74 xG in his last match alone, highlighting continued involvement in high-quality chances, while Levante are scoring regularly.

Abdessamad Ezzalzouli To Score Or Assist – 1pt

Odds Implied: 47.17% | AI Probability: 57.82% | Expected Value: 22.58%

11/10 with BetMGM

Ezzalzouli is in excellent attacking form and continues to deliver consistent goal contributions.

Abdessamad Ezzalzouli Scored OR Assisted: 1, 2, 0, 3, 1, 1

He has five goals and three assists in his last six matches, underlining both his scoring and creative output.

Marcos Alonso Over 1.5 Tackles – 1pt

Odds Implied: 47.62% | AI Probability: 52.27% | Expected Value: 9.77%

6/5 with bet365

Alonso has shown the ability to clear this tackles line regularly, with several high-volume defensive performances in recent games.

Marcos Alonso Tackles: 3, 4, 1, 6, 1, 2, 0, 0, 3

His role and recent numbers suggest he will again be involved enough defensively to challenge this line.