How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.#

Running P/L:+20.80pts

Johnny Kenny Over 0.5 Shots On Target – 1pt

Odds Implied: 55.56% | AI Probability: 68.86% | Expected Value: 23.95%

4/5 with BetMGM

Kenny has been consistently active in front of goal, combining strong shot volume with regular accuracy on target.

Johnny Kenny Shots: 2, 4, 6, 3, 3, 2, 0, 5, 2, 5, 3

Johnny Kenny Shots on Target: 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0, 2, 2

He has also scored in five of his last six starts.

Ilyas Chaira Over 0.5 Shots On Target – 1pt

Odds Implied: 51.28% | AI Probability: 58.62% | Expected Value: 14.31%

19/20 with BetMGM

Chaira’s shot volume is extremely consistent, regularly getting multiple attempts per game and translating that into shots on target.

Ilyas Chaira Shots: 4, 5, 7, 4, 2, 2, 4, 2, 3, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2

Ilyas Chaira Shots on Target: 3, 2, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2

With such a steady baseline of attempts and accuracy, he looks well placed to hit the target at least once again.

Vitor Reis Over 1.5 Tackles – 1pt

Odds Implied: 51.28% | AI Probability: 61.44% | Expected Value: 19.81%

19/20 with Ladbrokes/Coral

Reis has posted solid tackle numbers across recent matches and regularly gets involved defensively.

Vitor Reis Tackles: 3, 1, 4, 0, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 3, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 0, 3, 2

He is also expected to be matched up against Real Sociedad’s most dispossessed players in Oyarzabel, which should increase his opportunities to engage and make tackles.