How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Thursday's Results:

Johnny Kenny Over 0.5 Shots On Target – 1pt - VOID
Ilyas Chaira Over 0.5 Shots On Target – 1pt - LOST
Vitor Reis Over 1.5 Tackles – 1pt - LOST

Running P/L:+18.80pts

Friday's Tips

Tip 1: Ollie Watkins - Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt

Best odds of 15/8 at Skybet while publishing.

Odds Implied: 35% | AI Probability: 39% | Expected Value: 11%

Ollie Watkins enters this match in exceptional form. The Villa striker has scored in four of his last five home games at Villa Park and has netted eight goals across his previous nine matches in all competitions. He has also scored five goals in his last five home appearances, highlighting both confidence and consistency in front of goal. Against a Liverpool side that has looked vulnerable defensively away from home, Watkins stands out as one of the strongest anytime goalscorer selections on the board.

 

Tip 2: John McGinn - 1+ Shot on Target - 0.75pts

Best odds of 23/20 at Star Sports while publishing.

Odds Implied: 46% | AI Probability: 47% | Expected Value: 2%

John McGinn has recorded at least one shot on target in five of his last 10 matches and has averaged one shot on target per game across his previous five appearances at Villa Park. McGinn’s willingness to attack central areas and shoot from distance makes this market attractive, especially in a home fixture where Villa are expected to play proactively.

Tip 3: Dominik Szoboszlai Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 1/1 at bet365 while publishing.

Odds Implied: 50% | AI Probability: 61% | Expected Value: 22%

Dominik Szoboszlai has exceeded 1.5 tackles in five of his last six matches, with tackle totals of 0, 2, 5, 2, and 3 across his previous five appearances. Liverpool’s struggles away from home against stronger opposition could force the Hungarian midfielder into a more aggressive defensive role here. With Aston Villa expected to compete intensely in midfield, Szoboszlai may be heavily involved in pressing sequences and recovery actions, making the tackles line particularly appealing.

 

Tip 4: Virgil van Dijk - 1+ Foul - 1pt

Best odds of 8/11 at bet365 while publishing.

Odds Implied: 58% | AI Probability: 62% | Expected Value: 7%

Virgil van Dijk has committed at least one foul in eight of his last 10 matches, with foul counts of 1, 0, 1, 1, and 2 across his previous five games. The matchup itself strongly supports this angle. Van Dijk is likely to spend large periods defending directly against Watkins and Morgan Rogers, two aggressive runners who consistently draw fouls through direct dribbling and physical movement. Given Villa’s attacking style at home, this line looks well-positioned to land.

 

Tip 5: Bet Builder - 0.75pts

Best combined odds of 5/1 at bet365 while publishing.

Leg 1: Watkins Shot On Target

Leg 2: Virgil van Dijk 1+ Foul

Leg 3: McGinn 2+ Shot

Leg 4: Szoboslai 1+ Tackle

Make sure to get the best odds on your Bet Builders with our exclusive Bet Builder Comparison Tool.