How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Saturday's results:

  • Patrick Mainka Over 0.5 Fouls vs Mainz – 1.5pts @ 11/10  WON
  • Johan Manzambi Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs RB Leipzig – 1pt @ 21/20  LOST
  • Vincenzo Grifo To Score or Assist vs RB Leipzig – 1pt @ 11/10  VOID
  • Budu Zivzivadze Anytime Goalscorer vs Mainz – 1pt @ 9/5  LOST
  • Wouter Burger To Be Shown a Card vs Gladbach – 1pt @ 4/1  LOST

 

Running P/L: +17.55pts

Jack Hinshelwood Over 0.5 Shots On Target – 1pt

Odds Implied: 47.62% | AI Probability: 60.44% | Expected Value: 26.92%

6/4 with Betway

Hinshelwood continues to show strong attacking involvement from midfield and heads into this game in excellent scoring form.

Jack Hinshelwood Shots: 2, 4, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 2, 0

Jack Hinshelwood Shots on Target: 1, 3, 2, 0, 1, 0, 2, 0, 1, 1

He has scored in each of his last three matches, while Brighton are still pushing for European qualification against a Leeds side with little left to play for.

Igor Jesus Over 0.5 Shots On Target – 1pt

Odds Implied: 52.08% | AI Probability: 60.58% | Expected Value: 16.31%**

10/11 with BetMGM

Igor Jesus has maintained a consistent level of attacking output, regularly producing both shots and efforts on target.

Igor Jesus Shots: 4, 1, 3, 1, 5, 2, 2, 1, 5, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2

Igor Jesus Shots on Target: 3, 0, 1, 1, 3, 0, 2, 0, 2, 1

The underlying numbers suggest he remains heavily involved in forward areas and should generate at least one effort on target again.

Mateus Fernandes Over 1.5 Fouls – 1pt

Odds Implied: 51.28% | AI Probability: 54.86% | Expected Value: 6.98%

5/4 with Ladbrokes

Fernandes has consistently posted solid foul numbers and faces a difficult midfield matchup here.

Mateus Fernandes Fouls Committed: 2, 0, 0, 1, 3, 4, 2, 5, 0, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2

He is expected to spend much of the game dealing with Bruno Guimarães, whose recent fouls won numbers remain extremely high.

Bruno Guimarães Fouls Won: 5, 5, 3, 2, 4

That matchup should naturally create plenty of opportunities for Fernandes to commit tactical fouls.

Ismaïla Sarr Over 1.5 Shots – 1pt

Odds Implied: 57.8% | AI Probability: 67.37% | Expected Value: 16.55%

8/11 with Ladbrokes

Sarr continues to produce highly reliable shot volume and has regularly cleared this line in recent matches.

Ismaïla Sarr Shots: 6, 2, 0, 2, 3, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2

With his direct style and current attacking form, he looks well positioned to register multiple attempts once again.