How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Wednesday's Results:

  • Freiburg vs Aston Villa Bet Builder (Johan Manzambi 1+ Shot on Target, Youri Tielemans 1+ Foul Committed, John McGinn 2+ Shots & Ollie Watkins Anytime Goalscorer) – 0.25pts @ 12/1 LOST
  • Johan Manzambi 1+ Shot on Target – 1pt @ 11/10  WON
  • Youri Tielemans Over 1.5 Fouls – 1pt @ 7/5 LOST
  • John McGinn 2+ Shots – 1pt @ 1/1 WON
  • Ollie Watkins Anytime Goalscorer – 1pt @ 29/20 LOST

2025/26 Season P/L: +20.33pts

Ilyas Chaira Over 0.5 Shots On Target – 1pt

Odds Implied: 47.62% | AI Probability: 58.87% | Expected Value: 23.63%

11/10 with bet365

Chaira continues to produce strong shooting volume and has been consistently accurate with his efforts in recent matches.

Ilyas Chaira Shots: 1, 4, 5, 7, 4, 2, 2, 4, 2, 3, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3

Ilyas Chaira Shots on Target: 0, 3, 2, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1

He has also scored two goals in his last five starts, underlining his growing attacking influence.

Valentin Rosier Over 0.5 Shots – 1pt

Odds Implied: 46.51% | AI Probability: 53.29% | Expected Value: 14.57%

23/20 with Bet Victor

Rosier has regularly contributed shots from his role and only failed to register an effort in a handful of recent appearances.

Valentin Rosier Shots: 1, 3, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1

His overall consistency going forward makes the single-shot line look achievable once again.

Abdessamad Ezzalzouli Anytime Goalscorer – 0.75pt

Odds Implied: 28.57% | AI Probability: 38.94% | Expected Value: 36.29%

5/2 with Sky Bet

Ezzalzouli has been one of the more dangerous attacking players in recent weeks, combining strong shot volume with encouraging xG numbers.

Abdessamad Ezzalzouli Shots: 1, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 4, 1, 5, 3, 1, 4

Abdessamad Ezzalzouli Expected Goals (xG): 0.04, 0.17, 0.3, 0.69, 0.06, 0.51, 0.41

He has scored five goals in his last eight starts and continues to get into promising scoring positions consistently.

Arnau Martínez Over 0.5 Shots – 1pt

Odds Implied: 50% | AI Probability: 72.19% | Expected Value: 44.38%

1/1 with BetMGM

Martínez has shown a very reliable baseline for registering at least one attempt, producing a shot in the majority of recent matches.

Arnau Martínez Shots: 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1

He also benefits from facing an Elche side that allow 12% more shots than league average, which should increase opportunities further.

Sergio Camello Anytime Goalscorer – 0.5pts

Odds Implied: 25% | AI Probability: 32.38% | Expected Value: 29.52%

3/1 with Sky Bet

Camello arrives in strong form and has been producing excellent attacking numbers across his recent starts.

Sergio Camello Shots: 5, 3, 2, 3

Sergio Camello Shots on Target: 2, 1, 2, 2

Sergio Camello Expected Goals (xG): 0.38, 0.26, 0.07, 0.57

He has scored three goals in his last four starts and continues to post solid shot and xG figures.