World Cup 2026 Outright Tips: Five Most Backed Bets This Week

France - To Win World Cup - 5/1 with bet365

France look one of the strongest outright bets in the 2026 World Cup Winner market and, at around 5/1, there is a strong case that they're still being slightly undervalued compared to some of their rivals.

The biggest reason is tournament pedigree. Under Didier Deschamps, France have become the easily the best in knockout football, reaching the 2018 World Cup final, the 2022 World Cup final and consistently going deep in major tournaments. When betting outright winners, proven tournament performers are often worth far more than flashy qualifying campaigns.

Then there is the squad itself. No nation can match France's combination of talent and depth. Kylian Mbappé is one of the best players in world football, while the supporting cast featuring the likes Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, William Saliba, Mike Maignan and Ousmane Dembélé gives France world-class quality in every area of the pitch. If injuries strike, they have replacements capable of starting for almost any other nation.

The expanded 48-team format could also play directly into France's hands. Winning the World Cup now requires navigating more matches than ever before, making squad depth increasingly important. Few countries are better equipped to rotate through the group stage and still arrive fresh for the knockout rounds.

Perhaps most importantly, France have a favourable route. They are expected to win their group and avoid several major contenders until the latter stages, giving them an excellent opportunity to build momentum before facing the tournament heavyweights.

Julian Alvarez To Win Golden Boot - 33/1 with Unibet

At 33/1, Julian Alvarez stands out as one of the most interesting outsiders in the Golden Boot market. While much of the attention is focused on Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane and Erling Haaland.

Alvarez has already shown he can deliver on football's biggest stage. During Argentina's 2022 World Cup campaign, he scored four goals in seven appearances, finishing behind only Lionel Messi and Mbappé in the scoring charts. Four years later, he enters the tournament as a far more complete and experienced player, having established himself as one of Europe's most clinical finishers - he scored 10 goals in 15 games in this seasons Champions League.

His movement inside the penalty area is among the best in world football, constantly finding pockets of space and creating high-quality chances. 

The draw could also work heavily in his favour. Group-stage fixtures against Algeria, Austria and Jordan present an excellent opportunity for Argentina to score freely. Golden Boot winners often pad their totals during the opening rounds, and Alvarez has the potential to do exactly that if Argentina hit their stride early.

Perhaps most importantly, Argentina are expected to make another deep run. Few nations look better equipped to challenge for the trophy than the defending champions - they are fourth favourites to lift the trophy, if they can beat what looks like a likely tie against Uruguay in the round of 32, they then face worse case scenario either Belgium or Egypt. Portugal probably await in the quarter finals.

With Lionel Messi increasingly operating in a deeper creative role and potentially managing his minutes throughout the tournament, Alvarez should find himself as the focal point of Argentina's attack. If he can get off to a fast start in the group stage against sides like Austria, Algeria and Jordan then he has a real chance.

Bruno Fernandes To Win Golden Ball - 20/1 with various bookies

At 20/1, Bruno Fernandes looks one of best priced candidates in the Golden Ball market for the 2026 World Cup, especially when you consider how central he is to a Portugal side that finally looks balanced enough to go deep in a major tournament. Portugal are no longer just a collection of attacking names; under Roberto Martínez they are a structured, possession-heavy team built around midfield control, and that places Fernandes right at the heart of everything they do.

The Portugal captain arrives in North America off the back of a truly elite campaign, one that saw him deliver 20 Premier League assists (matching the all-time single-season record), while also leading the league with 132 chances created – over 50 more than his nearest rival.

What strengthens his Golden Ball case is Portugal’s depth in attacking areas. With Bernardo Silva, Vitinha, Neves, and others capable of sharing defensive duties, Fernandes is freed to operate in the business end. If Portugal go on a deep run – and their squad suggests they absolutely can – he will naturally accumulate the kind of influence that tends to define the tournament’s best player.

Spain To Reach Semi-Finals - 11/8 with Ladbrokes

Starting off on a slightly gloomy note; in their last 14 World Cup participations, Spain have only reached the semi-finals once — the 2010 title-winning campaign. Since that triumph, their record has been far less convincing, with a group stage exit in 2014 and two Round of 16 defeats in 2018 and 2022, highlighting a pattern of falling short in knockout football despite strong squad quality.

That context is important, but the current Spain side look far too structurally sound to continue that trend and their recent record proves that. They arrive off the back of Euro 2024 success, where they proved they can manage high-pressure knockout games and beat elite opposition - they beat Germany in the Quarter-final, France in the Semi-final and England in the final. 

Spain also benefit from a favourable group and a manageable early knockout path, meaning they are highly likely to reach the latter stages before facing the tournament’s true heavyweights. If they win their group, which they should do against Saudi Arabia, Cabo Verde and Uruguay, then they face the runner up of group J which according to the odds is most likely to be Austria (I can't see Argentina not winning that group), if not then Spain face either Algeria or Jordan. If they win the round of 32, Croatia or Columbia seems the most likely opponent in the round of 16. Then the Quarters will most likely pit them against Belgium worst case scenario. 

South Korea To Reach Last 16 - 14/5 With Unibet

South Korea head into the 2026 World Cup as one of the more intriguing knockout qualification candidates at around the Group A stage, and there is a strong case to be made for them reaching the Round of 32/Last 16.

South Korea went unbeaten across qualifying, completing a 16-match campaign without a single defeat and finishing six points clear of Jordan. That level of consistency over such a long qualification cycle is rarely accidental, and it is evidence of a team that is structurally difficult to beat even when not at their attacking best.

They also arrive with proven World Cup pedigree. This is their 12th World Cup appearance, and while their historic benchmark remains the 2002 run to fourth place on home soil, they have shown they can compete with higher-ranked opposition. Their Qatar 2022 campaign reinforced that, notably with a statement win over Portugal that secured progression from a difficult group (Portugal, Uruguay, Ghana).

Their biggest strength remains individual quality in key areas. Son Heung-min continues to be the talisman and focal point of the attack alongside him, players such as Kim Min-jae, Lee Kang-in and Hwang In-beom provide a strong technical core capable of controlling games against mid-tier opposition.

The group itself also offers encouragement. With Mexico, South Africa and Czechia as opponents, South Korea are not expected to dominate, but they are certainly competitive in the race for second place. Mexico will likely set the standard, but the remaining fixtures are the type where South Korea’s organisation, structure, tournament experience, and quality can be decisive.

They will need to beat the runner-up in group B which according to the odds is expected to be Canada.