The EV Eagle has three World Cup betting tips on Thursday.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Thursday's Betting Tips:
- Mbekezeli Mbokazi To Be Shown A Card @ 4/1 (William Hill) - 0.75pt
- Heung-min Son Anytime Goalscorer @ 59/20 (10Bet) — 0.75pt
- Akram Afif To Score or Assist @ 9/2 (BetMGM) — 0.5pts
Mbekezeli Mbokazi To Be Shown A Card – 0.75pt
Odds Implied: 20% | AI Probability: 28.09% | Expected Value: 40.45%**
4/1 with William Hill
Mbokazi has enjoyed a rapid rise since making his Orlando Pirates debut in March 2025, but there are already signs that discipline can be an issue for the young defender.
The 20-year-old was sent off for violent conduct during South Africa's World Cup qualifying campaign against Zimbabwe and has was warned publicly by manager Hugo Broos about controlling his temperament.
"The only thing about Mbokazi, I know that he is young and sometimes he loses his temper. He has to be careful with that."
Standing at 5'10", he could face a difficult physical battle against Patrik Schick who stands at 6 foot 3. Czech like to play direct so expect him to be engaged in some battles.
Paddy Power
- Trusted parent company
- Industry leader in promotions/marketing
- Competitive pricing
Heung-min Son Anytime Goalscorer – 0.75pts
Odds Implied: 25.32% | AI Probability: 32.74% | Expected Value: 29.32%**
59/20 with 10Bet
Son was unfortunate not to score in South Korea's opening victory over Czechia and remains the focal point of almost everything positive they do in attack.
Against Czechia:
- 6 shots
- 1.01 xG
South Korea's 2-1 win was an encouraging start and reinforced why many view them as dark horses for the tournament. Son continues to be the primary goal threat and penalty-taker, while his movement and finishing make him a constant danger in transition.
Having generated over one expected goal in the opener, another performance of similar quality should give him every chance of finding the net against Mexico.
Akram Afif To Score Or Assist – 0.5pts
Odds Implied: 18.18% | AI Probability: 21.82% | Expected Value: 20.01%**
9/2 with BetMGM
Whenever Qatar create something meaningful, Afif is usually at the centre of it. The experienced forward is both their leading creative player and biggest goal threat.
Akram Afif:
- 125 international caps
- 39 international goals
A key tactical battle could emerge down Canada's left side. Alphonso Davies is expected to push forward aggressively, potentially leaving space behind for Afif to exploit in transition.
If Qatar are to cause an upset, Afif is the player most likely to make it happen, whether through a goal of his own or creating a chance for a teammate. His ability to operate between the lines and attack open space makes him Qatar's standout attacking angle at these odds.
