Scotland face Brazil at Hard Rock Stadium on Wednesday needing their first ever win against the five-time world champions.
Scotland vs BrazilSee All Odds
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Scotland face Brazil at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami on Wednesday night (11pm BST, BBC One), knowing a win would guarantee their first ever World Cup knockout qualification. Clarke's side sit third in Group C on three points, having beaten Haiti before losing 1-0 to Morocco.
Brazil lead the group on four points after drawing with Morocco and hammering Haiti 3-0, with Matheus Cunha and Vinicius Junior among the goals. Scotland have never beaten Brazil in 10 previous meetings, losing all three World Cup encounters including a 2-1 defeat in France 1998 - their last meeting at a major tournament.
Scotland vs Brazil Best Bet
Recommended Bet: Brazil Over 1.5 Goals
Best Odds: 19/20 (Unibet)
Advised Stake: 1pt
Brazil have been far from their brilliant best at this World Cup, but Scotland's defensive limitations make a multi-goal Brazilian performance a realistic proposition. Clarke's side managed zero shots on target against Morocco and conceded inside 70 seconds, while their players have combined for just eight attempts across two games - deeply underwhelming numbers.
Brazil have already scored four goals in two games. Vinicius Junior has found the net in both group games and carries six goal involvements across his last six World Cup appearances, while Cunha, who scored twice against Haiti and netted in three of his final four club games, adds a potent second threat. Even without the injured Raphinha, Brazil's attacking depth is formidable.
Scotland arrive in Miami having committed 34 fouls and picked up four bookings across two games, and facing superior opposition in 31-degree heat.
A frustrated backline containing the likes of Hanley and Hendry, playing in 31 degree heat against an in form front line of super stars could spell trouble for Scotland.
Who is favourite to win Scotland vs Brazil?
Brazil are overwhelming favourites at 2/5, and it's hard to argue with the bookmakers. The five-time world champions have won all four of their previous World Cup meetings with Scotland, scoring seven goals in the process, and arrive in Miami with Vinicius Junior in devastating form - scoring in both group games. Scotland are a massive 17/2 to cause one of the tournament's greatest ever upsets, having never beaten Brazil in 10 attempts. The draw is priced at 9/2, though with Scotland needing a win to guarantee qualification and Brazil targeting top spot, a cagey stalemate feels like the least likely outcome of the three.
Hot Streak
Scotland vs Brazil Bet Builder Tips
- Lewis Ferguson to be Carded
- Vinícius Júnior anytime scorer
- Brazil Win
Best price 11/1 with bet365 at the time of publishing.
Lewis Ferguson to be Carded
Ferguson is a persistent fouler who simply cannot stay out of the referee's book. He averaged three fouls per 90 minutes and was carded three times across Scotland's qualifiers, he picked up five yellows and a red for Bologna in Serie A this season despite starting just 17 matches - a remarkable card rate for a player who wasn't even a regular starter.
His foul count across his last 12 Scotland starts reads 2, 1, 3, 3, 2, 4, 5, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3.
He has collected five cards in his last 14 matches, and Clarke's midfield will be under enormous pressure in Miami's 31-degree heat against a Brazil side designed to draw fouls.
Ferguson is likely to be tasked with shackling Bruno Guimaraes, Brazil's most fouled player:
Bruno Guimarães Fouls Won: 2, 2, 1, 0, 1, 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 1, 2, 1, 3
And Casemiro who drew two fouls in the opener:
Casemiro Fouls Won: 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1
Vinícius Júnior anytime scorer
Vinicius Junior has been Brazil's standout performer at this World Cup and there is genuine value in his anytime scorer price.
The Real Madrid superstar has found the net in both group games - a stunning equaliser against Morocco followed by Brazil's third against Haiti, where he also set up Cunha for the second - and arrives at Hard Rock Stadium with six goal involvements across his last six World Cup appearances.
Scotland's defence is notably short of pace, and a backline featuring Hanley and Hendry will be desperately vulnerable to Vinicius Junior's explosive runs in behind.
Brazil Win
Even without peak Neymar or the injured Raphinha, Ancelotti’s side has superior talent across the pitch. Vinícius Júnior is in sharp form after his goal and lively display vs Haiti, Matheus Cunha is thriving as the focal point, and Lucas Paquetá gives them control and creativity in the final third. Scotland simply don’t have the individual quality to match them over 90 minutes.
Tactical mismatch favours the favourites. Steve Clarke is expected to stay pragmatic and compact (likely a 3-5-2 or 4-4-1-1 hybrid) after the narrow loss to Morocco. That approach limited damage but produced zero shots on target. Against a Brazil side that can stretch play through Vini on the left and combinations through the middle, Scotland’s low block will eventually be picked apart - especially if they are forced to push forward in search of the win they need to keep knockout hopes alive.
Scotland’s attacking limitations are glaring. They have scored just one goal in two World Cup games and struggled to create against organised defences. Even in their 1-0 win over Haiti they were far from dominant. McTominay and McGinn offer energy and occasional threat, but they will be well marshalled by Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães.
Scotland vs Brazil Player Prop Bet
Recommended Bet: Lewis Ferguson 2+ Fouls
Best Odds: 8/11
Advised Stake: 2pts
Lewis Ferguson has a tough task on his hands here. Scotland's most frequent fouler is set to face off against Brazil's most fouled player.
Lewis Ferguson Fouls Committed: 2, 1, 3, 3, 2, 4, 5, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3
He has only failed to hit 2+ fouls in two of his last 12 international games and with Scotland looking for a result he wont go easy.
You could even go for the higher line at 9/4 for 3+ fouls - that bet has landed 5 of his last 12 games.
