Who is the favourite to win Switzerland vs Colombia?

At 13/10, Colombia are the market favourites here, and it's not hard to see why the bookmakers see it that way - Lorenzo's side have won five and drawn one of their last six outings, kept three straight clean sheets at the World Cup, and topped their group before edging past Ghana.

But what stands out is just how tight the pricing is across the board: Switzerland at 11/4 and the draw at 11/5 aren't far behind, and that gap tells its own story.

Leg 1: Johan Manzambi Over 0.5 Shots on Target

Assuming he's fit to line up, Manzambi is the standout shots-on-target pick for this tie. The 20-year-old has been the revelation of Switzerland's tournament, contributing three goals and two assists across his four appearances so far, and his overall shooting numbers back that up. Across his last 16 games for club and country he's found the target at least once in 10 of them, and for Switzerland specifically that number sits at four from six. Colombia's defence has been rock-solid, shipping just a single goal all tournament, but that tightness should if anything push more of Switzerland's attacking threat through Manzambi, who's operating with real license and confidence in the final third right now.

Leg 2: Breel Embolo To Score Or Assist

Embolo' has been directly involved in a goal in 11 of his last 18 outings for club and country, and on the international stage his consistency is even sharper - a goal contribution in five straight major tournament matches for Switzerland. He plays as the central reference point for the Swiss attack, equally capable of finishing chances himself or setting up the likes of Manzambi and Dan Ndoye when he drops deeper to link play. In what should be a tense knockout match, having a player who can influence the game two different ways adds real value.

Leg 3: Under 2.5 Goals

The numbers point to a low-scoring affair despite Colombia's attacking volume. They've fired off 20-plus shots in three consecutive matches - a rate matched at a World Cup only by France in 1998, and not seen from a South American side since Brazil two tournaments prior - yet have only netted twice across that stretch, giving them the worst xG-per-shot of any team still in the competition. It's quantity without quality in front of goal. At the back, they've matched that solidity, keeping three straight clean sheets for the first time in their World Cup history, a mark bettered only by Spain and Mexico this tournament. Their sole goal in the round of 32 came remarkably early - Jhon Arias struck inside 14 minutes off a Luis Suárez assist, the fastest substitute-assisted goal in World Cup history - while their win over Ghana was a tight 1-0.

Switzerland's own scoring pattern tells a similar story once you strip out the anomaly. The 5-0 rout of Bosnia looked explosive, but all five goals came after the 74th minute once substitutes Manzambi and Vargas turned the game on its head. Away from that, their knockout-stage wins have been controlled rather than free-scoring: 2-0 against Algeria, 2-1 against co-hosts Canada. Two goals has been their ceiling when it's mattered, with defensive discipline doing most of the heavy lifting.