Mark Stinchcombe's World Cup Quarter Final Best Bets & Betting Tips

France v Morocco Betting Tips

France are 8/13 favourites but will need to be wary of this Morocco side who have already knocked out Netherlands and played Brazil off the park as part of their 26 competitive match unbeaten run. Morocco’s main threats will come down the right in the form of winger Brahim Diaz and Achraf Hakimi.

Indeed 46% of their attacks have come down this side compared to the centre and the left – the second highest in the World Cup. Opponents are struggling given the quality and as a result the only way to stop them is to foul them. Diaz has drawn 1.6 fouls per-game and Hakimi 2.8 per-game during the course of the tournament (the 10th most) – overall a whopping 4.4 per-game in total.

Hakimi himself has been fouled two or more times in his last eight games in a row. It means France’s left-back in Lucas Digne is in for a tough task. He’s committed a foul in his last eight games and given the skill and quality he’s up against, there’s a great chance he’ll make it two on this occasion.

Recommended bet: Lucas Digne Over 1.5 fouls @ 13/10 (Ladbrokes/Coral), 6/5 (Virgin/BetWay)

Spain v Belgium Betting Tips

There looks to be a huge tussle on the cards here down Spain’s right-hand side and Belgium’s left-hand side between two of the world’s best dribblers. Lamine Yamal versus Maxim De Cuyper and Jeremy Doku (if he starts, if not when he comes on) versus Pedro Porro.

As a result there could be lots of fouls on that side. This is emphasised by the fact that Yamal is only 8/11 to be fouled twice and Doku just 2/5! However, combining their direct opponents in De Cuyper and Porro to commit Over 1.5 fouls pays 15/4.

Yamal has been fouled 29 times in his last 17 competitive games at an average of 1.71 per-game. Doku has been fouled an incredible 48 times in his last 16 starts at an average of 3.0 per-game. If indeed he doesn’t start, Leandro Trossard is still a tricky customer and in Doku’s 24 minute cameo versus the USA he was fouled three times.

The double is as short as 1.86/1 with other bookmakers but using OddsChecker’s Bet Builder tool we can get it at 9/2.

Recommended bet: Maxin De Cuyper & Pedro Porro over 1.5 fouls @ 9/2 (Bet365)

Norway v England Betting Tips

The elite forwards at the World Cup have been putting up elite numbers. Messi has eight goals in five games, Mbappe seven goals in just four games. And the other two meet here in this blockbuster clash. Harry Kane has six goals in five games and Erling Haaland seven goals in only four matches.

Kane has an enormous 85 goals for England, Haaland has an unbelievable record of 62 goals in just 54 caps.

He’s scored in his last 14 competitive matches. The man is a machine. The market is favouring goals with Over 2.5 favourite at 4/5 and who are we to argue with a World Cup averaging 2.92 goals per-game. Both players are on penalties and if we back the bet with Bet365, we’ve still got a runner if the game goes to extra-time.

With so many Premier League players on show, I wonder if this plays out like a typical end-to-end English game with a semi-final spot going to whoever can score the most.

Recommended bet: Harry Kane & Erling Haaland both to score @ 21/5 (BetMGM)

Argentina v Switzerland Betting Tips

I really want to oppose Switzerland here. I think they could be fatigued following 120 minutes plus penalties in the last match of the round of 16 versus Colombia, they are dealing with injuries/fitness issues to key players in Johan Manzambi and Ruben Vargas and are at a disadvantage climate-wise to Argentina for whom will have the majority of fan support.

I was disappointed by their showing against Colombia in the 0-0 draw, managing just six shots in 90 minutes then just one in extra-time. This is a repeat of the 2014 quarter-final meeting this time in South America in Sao Paulo where Argentina won 1-0 late on in extra-time. That day the Swiss conceded 29 shots with 22 on-target and it feels like something similar could be in-store.

If I’m right, I want a bigger win than the market expects on my side and I like the look of Argentina -2.0 on the Asian Handicap. The bet wins if the margin of victory is greater than two, with money back if they win exactly by two. I also like the look of a small bet on the correct score of 3-0 with Argentina having scored three goals in four of their five games.

This is the Swiss’ station. Since 2014, at the last six major tournaments they have been eliminated at either the round of 16 or the quarter-finals. They beat who they are expected to beat and are knocked out by who they are expected to be knocked out by.

This feels like the end of the cycle for some of their players with their three most capped starting XI 33 or older. Indeed both Granit Xhaka and Ricardo Rodriguez both played last time these two met 12 years ago. 

Recommended bet: Argentina -2.0 Asian Handicap @ 19/4 (Unibet), 9/2 (Bet365)

Recommended bet: Argentina 3-0 @ 13/1 (Unibet/QuinnBet), 12/1 (various)