Norway vs England

Norway's clash with England has the makings of a shootout rather than a chess match. Both teams have shown they can score for fun this tournament - and both have shown they can be got at defensively. Add in Erling Haaland's ongoing love affair with goal involvements and England's habit of letting strikers rough up their centre-backs, and there's a tasty bet builder to be found here. Below is a breakdown of three angles worth considering.

Over 2.5 Goals

If there's one thing this fixture promises, it's goals at both ends.

Norway arrive having leaked nine goals in five matches, and more tellingly, they haven't managed a single clean sheet all tournament — not even in games where they were expected to dominate. England's defensive numbers read almost identically: nine goals conceded in five outings, with two shipped against both DR Congo and Mexico. Their underlying expected-goals-against figures against sides who've already knocked out Brazil-calibre opposition hint that Norway should find space to work with.

It's not just about leaky defences, though — both sides can finish. Norway have racked up 12 goals in five games, seven of them down to Haaland alone. England have hit at least two goals in three straight matches, powered by a front line of Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and Anthony Gordon, all of whom have been directly involved in goals during the knockout stages.

Two attacking sides, two shaky defences — the case for Over 2.5 Goals writes itself.

Erling Haaland 2+ Fouls Committed

Haaland doesn't just score goals - he draws contact doing it, and his disciplinary log backs that up: 1, 0, 2 and 2 fouls across his four World Cup appearances so far.

England's centre-back pairing gives him every reason to make it three games with multiple fouls. Ezri Konsa and Marc Guéhi have combined to win 16 fouls between them this tournament, with Guéhi alone drawing seven in a single match. It's not a one-off either - opposing strikers have picked up fouls against England in four of their five games (3, 0, 3, 4 and 1).

  • Konsa fouls won: 3, 1, 3, 2, 2
  • Guéhi fouls won: 1, 1, 2, 7
  • Striker fouls vs. England: 3, 0, 3, 4, 1
  • Haaland fouls committed: 1, 0, 2, 2

Put a physical, battling forward like Haaland up against two defenders who consistently force strikers into duels, and 2+ fouls committed looks like solid punt.

Erling Haaland — To Score or Assist

The stat that sums up Haaland's tournament: a goal or an assist in each of his last 13 competitive Norway appearances.

He also sits just one goal behind the Golden Boot pace, giving him extra incentive to keep delivering in the final third. Facing England, he'll be up against Premier League-familiar faces, including Guéhi, and that Premier League know-how of English defending could well tip a tight individual battle in his favour.

If Norway are to stand a chance here they need their main man to carry them on his back.