Norway vs England Tips: Best Bets, Odds & 6/1 Bet Builder

England's World Cup quest reaches Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday night, where a Norway side enjoying their best tournament in a generation stand in the way of a semi-final berth.

Thomas Tuchel's men survived a five-goal thriller with hosts Mexico to get here, while Stale Solbakken's Vikings stunned Brazil in the last 16 behind a two-goal salvo from Erling Haaland.

Two of the tournament's most dangerous attacks collide, and with both defences showing cracks throughout the competition, this has the makings of an open, high-scoring quarter-final.

England vs Norway Best Bet

Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Best Odds: 4/5 (AKBets)
Advised Stake: 1pt

The clearest angle in this match is goals - plenty of them. Neither side has managed to keep things tight at the back in Miami's run-up. Norway have shipped nine goals across their five games so far, a defensive record that means they are yet to keep a single clean sheet at the tournament, not even against lesser opposition. England's own defensive record tells a similar story: they too have conceded nine goals in this World Cup, including two apiece against DR Congo and Mexico, and their expected-goals-against figure against Brazil-conquering opposition suggests further openings will be there for Norway to exploit.

At the other end, both attacks have been ruthless. Norway have found the net 12 times in five matches, with Haaland personally responsible for seven of those. England, meanwhile, have scored at least twice in each of their last three outings and boast an attack featuring Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and Anthony Gordon, all of whom have contributed directly to goals in the knockout rounds. With two sides who attack fluently but defend loosely, backing Over 2.5 Goals looks like strong value.

Who is favourite to win England vs Norway?

England go into Saturday's clash as clear favourites, and deservedly so. Tuchel's side reached this stage unbeaten in their knockout matches, have won four of their five games at the tournament, and arrive off the back of eight straight wins - with clean sheets in all of them - during qualifying. Norway, by contrast, are appearing in their first World Cup quarter-final in the nation's history, and while their run to this point has been thrilling, question marks remain over how they cope against a side of England's pedigree, particularly given their leaky defensive numbers.

That said, this is far from a formality for England. Norway have not lost to a fellow European nation since a heavily-rotated squad were beaten by France in the group stage, and Haaland's ability to conjure a goal from almost nothing makes an upset entirely plausible. Expect a close, cagey edge to proceedings even with England holding the upper hand on paper — a repeat of previous major tournament exits against European opposition is not out of the question if England fail to control the game.

England vs Norway Bet Builder Tips

• Leg 1: England Double Chance

• Leg 2: Erling Haaland or Harry Kane to Score

• Leg 3: Jude Bellingham 3+ Shots

• Leg 4: Eling Haaland 1+ Foul Committed

Best price 6/1 with BetMGM.

Leg 1: England Double Chance

England's superior squad depth, tournament pedigree and knockout-stage know-how make them favourites to avoid defeat in normal time. They have lost just once in their last seven matches in all competitions, and while Norway have impressed going forward, their inexperience at this level and their inability to keep a clean sheet all tournament long make backing England to avoid defeat a sensible foundation leg.

Leg 2: Erling Haaland or Harry Kane to Score

Both nations lean heavily on their talismanic number nines, and both men arrive in outstanding form. Haaland has scored in every appearance he's made at this World Cup and has been directly involved in the majority of Norway's goals, while Kane has racked up six goals of his own, including strikes in each of England's knockout matches so far. With both strikers also on penalty duty for their countries, backing either to find the net covers two of the tournament's most reliable finishers.

Kane has an enormous 85 goals for England, Haaland has an unbelievable record of 62 goals in just 54 caps.

Leg 3: Jude Bellingham 3+ Shots

Bellingham has been England's standout performer on the way to the last eight, capped by a two-goal display against Mexico. He has managed at least one shot in every single match England have played at this World Cup, registering multiple attempts in four of those five outings. 

Jude Bellingham Shots: 3, 3, 2, 1, 3

He is riding the high of his heroics in the quater final and must feel he has earned the licence to shoot if he didn't already.

Leg 4: Eling Haaland 1+ Foul Committed

Haaland has committed at least one foul in three of his four World Cup outings (1, 0, 2, 2), and the matchup suggests that trend continues. Opposing strikers have picked up fouls against England in four of their five games so far (3, 0, 3, 4, 1), while Ezri Konsa and Marc Guéhi's willingness to carry the ball has drawn a combined 16 fouls won between them - with Guéhi alone winning seven in one game. Facing two centre-backs who consistently make strikers work for every touch, Haaland's battling style makes picking up at least one foul a solid backing.

• Ezri Konsa Fouls Won: 3, 1, 3, 2, 2
• Marc Guéhi Fouls Won: 1, 1, 2, 7
• ST fouls vs England: 3 , 0 , 3 , 4 , 1
• Erling Haaland Fouls Committed: 1, 0, 2, 2

 

England vs Norway Player Prop Tip

Recommended Bet: Nico O'Reilly 1+ Shot on Target
Best Odds: 12/5 (Ladbrokes)
Advised Stake: 1pt

O'Reilly has registered a shot in every single England appearance this tournament (1, 1, 1, 2), and his headed threat has been evident, with headed attempts in three outings).

The matchup plays right into that profile - Norway have the leakiest defence left in the competition, conceding 9 from an expected-goals-against of 8.1, a mark only bettered by four sides in the entire tournament. Their vulnerability is specifically from wide and dead-ball situations: both the Ivory Coast and France left-backs found joy with shots from open play, and Norway top the quarter-final field for shots conceded from set-pieces (17) and dead-ball xGA (1.46).

O'Reilly averaged the most headed shots for Man City in the last 20 games of the season, and hit the target with his head in eight of the last 15 games for City.

With O'Reilly operating in England's left-back role and showing an willingness to get on the end of crosses and set-pieces, backing him for a shot on target makes sense at a price.

England vs Norway Predicted Lineups

Norway: Nyland; Ryerson, Ajer, Heggem, Wolfe; Berg, Berge; Nusa, Ødegaard, Sørloth; Haaland

England: Pickford; Spence, Konsa, Guéhi, O'Reilly; Rice, Anderson; Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane

England vs Norway Prediction

Prediction: Norway 2-3 England (extra time not needed — England edge it in 90)

This has the look of a genuine shootout for goals rather than a cagey knockout affair. Norway have failed to keep a clean sheet all tournament and boast the worst xGA of any side left in the competition, while England have conceded in every game they've played bar the Ghana draw - so neither backline looks capable of shutting the other out.

Haaland should find the net again given his record of scoring in almost every appearance so far, and Norway's directness through Ryerson and Nusa down the flanks will create further chances against England's makeshift full-back areas. But England carry the greater depth of attacking threat: Kane has been clinical throughout, Bellingham has been involved in a shot or goal in every match, and Gordon and Saka add extra layers England's opponents haven't had to deal with yet.

It's tight and Norway will make it uncomfortable, but England's superior firepower and tournament experience should just about get the job done in normal time - Norway 2-3 England.