France meet Spain in Dallas on Tuesday for a place in the World Cup final.
France vs SpainSee All Odds
Two of international football's modern heavyweights collide in Dallas on Tuesday night, with a place in the 2026 World Cup final hanging in the balance.
France have won every game they've played so far and shipped just a two goals in the process, while Spain arrive have conceded just one goal all tournament.
France are chasing a third consecutive appearance in the tournament's showpiece, while reigning European champions Spain arrive unbeaten in 36 matches and determined to take another major step under Luis de la Fuente.
France vs Spain Best Bets
Recommended Bet: France to Win
Best Odds: 7/4 (AKBets)
Advised Stake: 1.5pts
Les Bleus have won 15 of their last 17 matches and arrive at this semi-final having beaten their six World Cup opponents by a combined 16-2, a level of ruthlessness nobody else in the competition can match. Kylian Mbappé has found the net in every single game this tournament and already has 11 direct goal involvements (eight goals, three assists), while Michael Olise has quietly racked up five assists of his own from open play.
Spain's defence has been outstanding - only Belgium have managed to breach it all summer - but that back line hasn't yet faced an attack with this much individual quality and this many different routes to goal.
Spain's own route to the semi has needed late intervention twice in a row, which hints at fragility under sustained pressure that France, over 90 minutes, are well equipped to exploit.
With France's top players firing on all cylinders and Spain having needed some luck, at 7/4 France to win in 90 looks like the play.
Who Is Favourite to Win France vs Spain?
Bookmakers have this one priced extremely close, which tells its own story about how evenly matched these sides are. France are marginal favourites at 7/5, with the draw available at 23/10 and Spain out at 12/5. Those numbers roughly translate to France being given around a two-in-five chance of winning inside 90 minutes, with Spain not far behind and a draw very much live given how few goals either defence has conceded this summer.
France vs Spain Bet Builder Tip
- Ousmane Dembele to Asist Anytime
- Pedri 1+ Foul
- Dani Olmo 2+ Shots
Best price 11/1 with bet365.
Ousmane Dembele to Asist Anytime
Michael Olise might be the obvious choice for an assist here with close to 2.2 key passes per 90 and the tournament's highest assist tallies. But Dembele looks like better value and has provided a similar level of output to Olise.
Dembele has created 2.92 shots per 90 at the World Cup compared to Olise's 2.78. He has already picked up assists in two games and was unlucky not to get another against Morocco in the quarters having rakced up 0.73 xA.
He is delivering by far the most crosses in the team with 5.45 per 90 (the next best is Digne with 3.10).
He has also created four big chances at the World Cup comapred to Olise's five and has actually created more chances (15) than Olise (12).
All eyes will be on Olise to set up Mbappe, but Dembele is equally as dangerous at a bigger price.
Pedri 1+ Foul
It is worth targetting players in middle of the park for fouls against this France team.
France most fouled players at the World Cup:
- Michael Olise (CAM) Fouls Won: 4, 3, 1, 2, 1, 2
- Manu Koné (CDM) Fouls Won: 2, 2, 1, 1
- Kylian Mbappé (ST) Fouls Won: 2, 2, 1, 0, 1, 1
Pedri stands out as decent value for one foul here. He isn't known to be the fouling type but up against this pacey, technical France team and in the heat of a World Cup semi final, anyone is prone to foul and at around 4/7 for just one foul he looks good value.
He has already been carded this tournament vs Cape Verde for hacking down Da Costa in the dying minutes of the game.
He has also picked up a foul now in three of his five starts.
Dani Olmo 2+ Shots
Dani Olmo Shots: 2, 2, 3, 2
When starting at the World Cup, Dani Olmo has not yet failed to attempt 2+ shots.
Albeit a tougher task than Spain have faced yet, France have conceded more xG and more shots than Spain at this tournament and both sides have attempted a tournament joint-second most 110 shots.
The last time these two sides met was a 5-4 thriller in the Nations League semi finals in which there were a massive 37 shots.
If this turns into a shoot out or France take an early lead, then we might see the shot count tick up here and Spain's third most frequent shooter at the tournament can easily pick up a couple.
His three shots from outside the box so far at the tournament also boosts confidence against a solid France back line.
France vs Spain Yellow Card Tip
Recommended Bet: Adrien Rabiot To be Booked
Best Odds: 4/1 (10Bet)
Advised Stake: 1pt
Semi-finals of this magnitude tend to be feisty affairs, and this one has the ingredients for a heavily booked match.
Adrien Rabiot is France's most physical player so far at the World Cup.
- Adrien Rabiot Fouls Committed: 2, 0, 4, 2, 1
He picked up 7 cards in 30 games for Milan last season.
France vs Spain Predicted Lineups
France (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Digne, Saliba, Upamecano, Koundé; Koné, Rabiot; Barcola, Olise, Dembélé; Mbappé.
Spain (4-2-3-1): Simón; Cucurella, Laporte, Cubarsí, Porro; Pedri, Rodri; Baena, Merino, Yamal; Oyarzabal
Deschamps has selection headaches in midfield, with Koné and Tchouaméni both vying for a starting berth, while up top the choice between Barcola and Doué to partner Mbappé, Dembélé and Olise remains genuinely open. For Spain, De la Fuente has to decide whether to stick with the XI that ground past Belgium or freshen things up with Nico Williams or Ferran Torres available from the bench, and there's a real possibility Merino's impact off the bench earns him a rare start given his knack for big moments this tournament.
France vs Spain Prediction
This has the feel of a genuine coin-flip on paper, but small margins tend to matter most in games like this, and France's slightly greater firepower in the final third could be the difference. Mbappé's goal return and chance creation give Les Bleus a reliable route to breaking down even a defence as well-drilled as Spain's, while Deschamps' side have shown they can grind out results as well as blow teams away. Spain, for their part, have the more eye-catching recent head-to-head record and a knack for late drama through their bench, but relying on a substitute to repeatedly bail them out is a pattern that can't continue indefinitely against elite opposition.
Expect a tense, low-scoring affair that swings on one or two moments of individual brilliance, with France just about doing enough to close it out.
Prediction: France to win.
