France vs England Best Bets, Odds & 20/1 Bet Builder

Nobody wanted this fixture, but here we are. France and England, the two beaten semi-finalists, meet in Miami for a World Cup third-place play-off that carries far more betting intrigue than prestige. Didier Deschamps takes charge of his final match before stepping down after 14 years at the helm, while Thomas Tuchel gets one last chance to send England home with something to smile about after a gut-punch exit against Argentina.

Both squads are expected to be heavily rotated, both managers have bigger things on their minds than a bronze medal, and that combination usually produces exactly the kind of loose, end-to-end football that punters love.

France vs England Best Bet

Recommended Bet: Kylian Mbappe to Score Anytime
Best Odds: 4/5 (AKBets)
Advised Stake: 1.5pts

France arrive with the best underlying attacking numbers of any semi-finalist at this tournament, having racked up the most shots on target and the highest expected goals tally of the last four. With Kylian Mbappe still hunting the Golden Boot and level with Lionel Messi at the top of the charts, there's every incentive for Deschamps to let his captain off the leash even in a dead-rubber.

On the other side, England have failed to keep a single clean sheet in the knockout stages, and a patched-up defence missing several first-choice options through injury (Guehi, Konsa, Rice and O'Reilly have all carried knocks) is unlikely to suddenly find its shape here.

Who is the favourite to win France vs England?

Bookmakers make France the clear favourites at 19/20, with England out at 3/1 and the draw also priced at 3/1.

France have the head-to-head edge, having won just one fewer than nine of the last meetings between the sides, including that 2022 World Cup quarter-final where Harry Kane's missed penalty proved decisive.

France also benefit from an extra day of recovery, and Deschamps' side were, on the balance of play across the tournament, considered the strongest team in the competition right up until their semi-final defeat to Spain.

France vs England Bet Builder Tip

• France to win
• Bellingham to be Carded
• Rabiot 2+ Fouls

Best price 20/1 with bet365.

France to Win

Even heavily rotated, France's bench is stacked with players like Rayan Cherki, Marcus Thuram, Desire Doue and Warren Zaire-Emery — players who'd walk into most other nations' starting XIs. England's rotation options (Mainoo, Toney, Watkins) are far less battle-tested at this level.

Mbappe is tied with Messi for the Golden Boot on 8 goals. That's a genuine, high-stakes personal motivator in a game where team motivation is otherwise low.

France have had a day longer to recover physically and mentally from their semi-final exit, which matters more than usual given how gassed both squads looked by the last four.

England have won just once in their last nine meetings with France, and lost their most recent competitive clash (the 2022 quarter-final).

No clean sheet in the knockouts, plus injury absences at the back - that's the side of the pitch a rotated-but-still-talented French attack should be able to exploit.

Jude Bellingham to be Carded

Bellingham has picked up nine yellows in his last 33 England appearances - roughly a booking every three-and-a-half games - and it's no coincidence given how physical his game is. He's committed at least one foul in five of his last seven outings (3, 1, 1, 2, 0, 2, 0), and he was visibly wound up after the Argentina defeat, even getting caught on camera in an ill-tempered moment with Valentin Barco post-match.

Throw in the opposition: Manu Kone and Adrien Rabiot form one of the most combative midfield pairings at this World Cup, and Bellingham will find himself busy. A player still simmering from a gutting semi-final exit, going up against two physical enforcers could 

Adrien Rabiot Over 1.5 Fouls Committed

Rabiot's numbers (2, 0, 4, 2, 1) average out to 1.8 fouls per game, and he's gone over 1.5 in four of his last five outings. That's a solid enough hit rate on its own.

Bellingham draws fouls at a high clip (4, 4, 2, 1, 4, 0, 1 — averaging around 2.3, with three separate 4-foul games), and Anderson's just come off a 4-foul-won performance himself. Rabiot's defensive, combative midfield role means he's likely to be tasked with shutting one or both of them down.

France vs England Predicted Lineups

France (possible XI): Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Lacroix, Digne; Kone, Rabiot; Barcola, Olise, Dembele; Mbappe

France's back four takes a hit with William Saliba ruled out through his recurring back problem, handing Crystal Palace's Maxence Lacroix a likely recall alongside Dayot Upamecano, who has been one of the form performers of Les Bleus' campaign. Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembele, the reigning Ballon d'Or holder, both carry serious creative threat from wide areas, while Mbappe's involvement is close to guaranteed given the Golden Boot race.

England (possible XI): Pickford; Spence, Konsa, Burn, O'Reilly; Anderson, Mainoo; Gordon, Bellingham, Madueke; Watkins

Expect wholesale changes from Tuchel. Kobbie Mainoo, who hasn't played a single minute all tournament despite growing calls for his inclusion, looks overdue a start, while Dan Burn could get a rare run-out at the back. Ollie Watkins is in line to lead the line in Harry Kane's likely absence, with both talismanic forwards in serious need of a rest after carrying the side through seven matches.

France vs England Prediction

France go into this as deserved favourites. Their attacking numbers across the tournament were the best of any semi-finalist, they have history on their side in this fixture, and they'll have had extra recovery time to reset after a chastening semi-final. England's threadbare, injury-hit defence and general tournament fatigue point to a stretched, open contest that suits the French frontline. Expect Mbappe to have a say, expect goals at both ends, and expect France to edge a game that neither side will remember fondly, regardless of the final score.