Fulham and Chelsea kick off their seasons with a London derby at Craven Cottage.
Fulham vs ChelseaSee All Odds
A new chapter begins at Craven Cottage on Monday night as Fulham and Chelsea meet in a West London derby that pits two managers making their Premier League debuts in very different circumstances. Álvaro Arbeloa has inherited the difficult task of replacing Marco Silva after five years of stability, while Xabi Alonso arrives at Chelsea looking to turn a talented but inconsistent squad into a side capable of challenging near the top of the table.
There are plenty of unknowns, but Chelsea arrive with considerable attacking firepower. Cole Palmer, Joao Pedro and British-record signing Morgan Rogers give Alonso a front three capable of causing problems, while Joao Pedro's seven goals during pre-season suggest he has already found his rhythm. Fulham, meanwhile, are attempting to replace 19 league goals following the departures of Harry Wilson and Raul Jimenez, leaving Gonzalo Garcia with immediate responsibility to provide the goals.
Fulham vs Chelsea Best Bet
Best Bet: Chelsea to win
Best price: 19/20 with Bresbet.
Chelsea's superior attacking quality makes the away victory an appealing opening-day play. Joao Pedro scored seven times during pre-season and finished last season as Chelsea's leading scorer with 15 Premier League goals, while the addition of Morgan Rogers alongside Cole Palmer provides another high-level attacking option.
Fulham have beaten Chelsea only four times in their last 38 Premier League meetings, despite winning the most recent encounter 2-1 in January. The Cottagers have also won only one of their last six Premier League opening games.
Chelsea's recent opening-day record is not perfect, with the Blues failing to win their first league fixture in each of the last three seasons, but they have lost just six opening-day games in Premier League history, with only three defeats coming since 2000.
Both sides are going through a transitional period but I think Chelsea are better equipped than Fulham this early in the season. There are too many question marks at Craven Cottage this season with a relatively unproven manager, a striker with little first team experience and numerous departures that need replacing. Chelsea have brought in proven talent and a proven manager and should have too much quality here.
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Chelsea?
At 19/20, Chelsea are clear favourites, with the market pricing them at roughly a 51% implied chance of victory. Fulham’s 16/5 price reflects the uncertainty around their new era under Álvaro Arbeloa and the loss of 19 league goals from Harry Wilson and Raul Jimenez. The 29/10 draw is also worth noting.
Fulham vs Chelsea Bet Builder Tips
Gonzalo Garcia 2+ Shots
I am taking a bit of a risk including Garcia in this bet builder. He is a bit of an unknown quanitity heading to the Premier League after making just 9 starts for Real Madrid last season.
Nonetheless, the 22-year-old striker has proven he knows how to find the net. In just 955 La Liga minutes last season he scored 6 goals (0.56 goals per 90).
Looking further into the numbers, he started 17 games in all competitions for Real Madrid last season and managed 2+ shots in eight of them. Fulham are no Real Madrid, but he will likely get a full game here and a lot of those starts ended in an early sub.
Over 1.5 Chelsea Goals
Chelsea's new look attack looks set to score goals in abundance.
Rogers, Joao Pedro, and Palmer have all the tools to unlock any defence and I'm not convinved Bassey and Cuenca have what it takes to stop them.
Their pre-season saw them ship goals against Saudi side Al-Ahli, a second division Portuguese side, Farenese, as well as two goals against Crystal Palace and Malaga.
Chelsea scored 16 goals across six games in pre-season with Joao Pedro scoring seven of them.
Jorge Cuenca To be Carded
Cuenca is prone to flying into a challenge. Six yellow cards in the Premier League last season in just 939 minutes of football is testament to that.
Joao Pedro's hold up play drew an average of 2.12 fouls won per 90 last season, making him Chelsea's most fouled played and Cole Palmer followed closely behind with 1.62 fouls won per 90. New recruit Morgan Rogers adds another tricky technical player into the mix and he drew 1.52 fouls per 90 for Aston Villa last season.
Fulham vs Chelsea Prediction
Chelsea's greater attacking quality could prove decisive in Monday's West London derby, with Xabi Alonso's side tipped to begin the campaign with a 2-1 victory at Craven Cottage.
Fulham should make this competitive, having won six of their last nine Premier League home games. However, Marco Silva's departure and Álvaro Arbeloa's arrival leave plenty of uncertainty.
The biggest concern is replacing Harry Wilson and Raúl Jiménez, who scored 19 league goals between them last season. Gonzalo García now carries much of that attacking responsibility.
Chelsea have more proven firepower, with João Pedro coming off a 15-goal Premier League season and scoring seven times in pre-season. Morgan Rogers also gives Cole Palmer another dangerous attacking option.
Chelsea have also scored in 14 of their last 16 meetings with Fulham, making a home clean sheet difficult to envisage.
Fulham kept just one clean sheet across six pre-season fixtures, another reason to favour Chelsea finding the net.
Chelsea have failed to win their opening league game in each of the last three seasons, so Fulham's home advantage should ensure this is close. However, Palmer, Rogers and João Pedro give Alonso's side enough attacking quality to edge it.
Prediction: Fulham 1-2 Chelsea
Fulham vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Fulham
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Predicted Starting Lineup: Leno; Robinson, Bassey, Cuenca, Castagne; Iwobi, Berge; Palacios, King, Bobb; García
Chelsea
Formation: 3-4-3
Predicted Starting Lineup: Sánchez; Hato, Colwill, Lacroix; Palestra, Caicedo, Fernández, James; Rogers, Pedro, Palmer
Fulham vs Chelsea Goalscorer Tip
João Pedro anytime goalscorer is a strong angle. He scored 15 Premier League goals last season and has been in outstanding pre-season form, finding the net seven times in five matches.
With Chelsea expected to edge Fulham 2-1, Pedro looks the most obvious candidate to get on the scoresheet, particularly with Morgan Rogers and Cole Palmer supplying him.
